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Threshold Cointegration between Stock Returns : An application of STECM Models

Author

Listed:
  • Jawadi Fredj

    (Université de Paris10-Nanterre MODEM-CNRS)

  • Koubaa Yousra

    (Université de Paris10-Nanterre MODEM-CNRS)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the efficient capital market hypothesis by using recent developments in nonlinear econometrics. In such a context, we estimate a Smooth Transition Error Correction Model (STECM). We introduce the DowJones as an explanatory variable of the dynamics of the other stock indexes. The error correction term takes into account of the structural changes that occured progressively from both the endogenous and the DowJones series. We note that the Smooth Transition Error Correction Model, for which the dynamics of adjustment is of ESTAR type, is more adequate than the linear ECM model to represent the adjustment of the stock price to the long term equilibrium price. Estimation results reveal the nonlinearity inherent to the adjustment process. In particular, we note that the adjustment is not continuous and that the speed of convergence toward price of equilibrium is not constant but rather function of the size of the disequilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Jawadi Fredj & Koubaa Yousra, 2004. "Threshold Cointegration between Stock Returns : An application of STECM Models," Econometrics 0412001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0412001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 17
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    Cited by:

    1. Baldi, Lucia & Vandone, Daniela & Peri, Massimo, 2010. "Is Wine a Financial Parachute?," 2010 International European Forum, February 8-12, 2010, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 100506, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    2. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non‐Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783, September.
    3. Moussa, Wajdi & Mgadmi, Nidhal & Béjaoui, Azza & Regaieg, Rym, 2021. "Exploring the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and commodities: New insights through STECM model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Lucia Baldi & Massimo Peri & Daniela Vandone, 2013. "Investing in the wine market: a country-level threshold cointegration approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 493-503, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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