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The anatomy of government bond yields synchronization in the Eurozone

Author

Listed:
  • Mattia Guerini
  • Mauro Napoletano

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Université Côte d’Azur, Institute of Economics of Sant'Anna [Pisa] - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa])

  • Claudio Barbieri

Abstract

We investigate the synchronization of the Eurozone's government bond yields at different maturities. For this purpose, we combine principal component analysis with random matrix theory. We find that synchronization depends on yield maturity. Short-term yields are not synchronized. Medium- and long-term yields, instead, were highly synchronized early after the introduction of the Euro. Synchronization then decreased significantly during the Great Recession and the European Debt Crisis, to partially recover after 2015. We interpret our empirical results using portfolio theory, and we point to divergence trades as a source of the self-sustained yield asynchronous dynamics. Our results envisage synchronization as a requirement for the smooth transmission of conventional monetary policy in the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano & Claudio Barbieri, 2024. "The anatomy of government bond yields synchronization in the Eurozone," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04530954, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-04530954
    DOI: 10.1017/S1365100523000597
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