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Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Melisso Boschi

    () (University of Essex)

  • Alessandro Girardi

    () (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

Abstract

This study adopts the long-run structural VAR approach to analyse the determinants of inflation in the Euro Area economy over the period 1985:1- 2003:2. Theoretical relationships link inflation to markup and output gap, respectively. The short-run dynamic properties of inflation are investigated using a structural VECM. Inflation is explained by a mixture of supply- and demandside factors, both in the long- and the short-run. Our simulation exercise indicates that a positive shock to inflation could have a favourable redistributional income effect on wage earners and non-detrimental consequences either on productivity and on competitiveness. Finally, the model produces satisfactory out-of-sample forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2005. "Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," ISAE Working Papers 60, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  • Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:60
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2015. "Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 98-111.
    3. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004247, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. Martina Alexová, 2012. "What determines inflation?," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 345-369.
    5. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2005. "Does one monetary policy fit all? the determinants of inflation in EMU countries," MPRA Paper 28554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    8. Dahem, Ahlem, 2015. "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 66702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; markup; Euro Area; long-run structural VARs; subset VECM; impulse response analysis; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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