IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics

  • Melisso Boschi

    ()

    (University of Essex)

  • Alessandro Girardi

    ()

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

This study adopts the long-run structural VAR approach to analyse the determinants of inflation in the Euro Area economy over the period 1985:1- 2003:2. Theoretical relationships link inflation to markup and output gap, respectively. The short-run dynamic properties of inflation are investigated using a structural VECM. Inflation is explained by a mixture of supply- and demandside factors, both in the long- and the short-run. Our simulation exercise indicates that a positive shock to inflation could have a favourable redistributional income effect on wage earners and non-detrimental consequences either on productivity and on competitiveness. Finally, the model produces satisfactory out-of-sample forecasts.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://lipari.istat.it/digibib/Working_Papers/WP_60_2005_Boschi_Girardi.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 60.

as
in new window

Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:60
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Via Cesare Balbo 16, Roma

Phone: +390646732606
Web page: http://www.istat.it/en/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, May.
  2. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2001. "Controlling Inflation in Euroland," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20102, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  6. Wolfgang Franz & Robert J. Gordon, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Thenes," NBER Working Papers 4292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hans-Werner Sinn & Michael Reutter, 2001. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," NBER Working Papers 8085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bowdler, Christopher & Jansen, Eilev S., 2004. "A markup model of inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0306, European Central Bank.
  9. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  10. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Leutkepohl, 2000. "Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application to a U.S. Monetary System," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0821, Econometric Society.
  12. Anindya BANERJEE & Bill RUSSEL, 2002. "A Markup Model for Forecasting Inflation in the Euro AreaI," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/16, European University Institute.
  13. Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
  14. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, May.
  15. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
  18. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
  20. Johri, Alok, 2001. "Markups and the Seasonal Cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 367-395, July.
  21. Persson, T. & Tabellini, G., 1993. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth," Papers 537, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  22. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04.
  23. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 7151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship Between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Plus One Economies," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0242, Econometric Society.
  25. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  26. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240.
  27. Wojciech Charemza & Daniela Hristova & Peter Burridge, 2005. "Is inflation stationary?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 901-903.
  28. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. "Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-83, June.
  29. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  30. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
  31. Binder, M. & Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "Stochastic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9615, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  32. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stefania Rossetti)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.