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Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Melisso Boschi

    (University of Essex)

  • Alessandro Girardi

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

Abstract

This study adopts the long-run structural VAR approach to analyse the determinants of inflation in the Euro Area economy over the period 1985:1- 2003:2. Theoretical relationships link inflation to markup and output gap, respectively. The short-run dynamic properties of inflation are investigated using a structural VECM. Inflation is explained by a mixture of supply- and demandside factors, both in the long- and the short-run. Our simulation exercise indicates that a positive shock to inflation could have a favourable redistributional income effect on wage earners and non-detrimental consequences either on productivity and on competitiveness. Finally, the model produces satisfactory out-of-sample forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2005. "Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," ISAE Working Papers 60, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    • Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:60
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    2. Petar Soric & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra & Oscar Claveria, 2022. "“Density forecasts of inflation using Gaussian process regression models”," AQR Working Papers 202207, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Martin Feldkircher & Gabriele Tondl, 2020. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 225-247, August.
    4. Martina Alexová, 2012. "What determines inflation?," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 345-369.
    5. Dahem, Ahlem, 2015. "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 66702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2020. "Anchoring inflation expectations in the face of oil shocks & in the proximity of ZLB: A tale of two targeters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Thouraya Boujelbene & Younes Boujelbene, 2010. "Long run determinants and short run dynamics of inflation in Tunisia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1255-1263.
    8. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Inflation targeting & implications of oil shocks for inflation expectations in oil-importing and exporting economies: Evidence from three Nordic Kingdoms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through & management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 178-188.
    10. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    11. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2015. "Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 98-111.
    13. Ahlem DAHEM, 2016. "Short-Term Bayesian Inflation Forecasting For Tunisia: Some Empirical Evidence," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, January.
    14. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2005. "Does one monetary policy fit all? the determinants of inflation in EMU countries," MPRA Paper 28554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    17. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 4246, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of Economic Policy and Oil Price Uncertainty on Inflation: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 10276, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; markup; Euro Area; long-run structural VARs; subset VECM; impulse response analysis; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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