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A markup model of inflation for the euro area

Author

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  • Bowdler, Christopher
  • Jansen, Eilev S.

Abstract

Equilibrium correction models of the price level are often used to model inflation. Such models assume that the long-run markup of prices over costs is fixed, but this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has undergone major structural reforms over the last 25 years. We allow for shifts in the markup factor through estimating an equation that includes a timevarying intercept. The model fits the data better than a linear alternative, and suggests that a reduction in the price-cost markup contributed to disinflation in the Euro area during the 1980s. JEL Classification: C22, C32, E31

Suggested Citation

  • Bowdler, Christopher & Jansen, Eilev S., 2004. "A markup model of inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 306, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
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    4. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
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    6. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 4104, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jun 2004.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Inflation and output forecasts for South Africa: monetary transmission implications," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-23, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.
    10. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    11. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bth:wpaper:2004-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
    3. Espasa, Antoni & Albacete, Rebeca, 2005. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area using monthly time series models and quarterly econometric models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws050401, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 4104, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jun 2004.
    5. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    6. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    8. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2007. "Euro area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24.
    9. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2005. "Does one monetary policy fit all? the determinants of inflation in EMU countries," MPRA Paper 28554, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; dynamic modelling; inflation; price-cost markup; time-varying intercept;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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