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Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation

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  • Jennifer Castle
  • David Hendry

Abstract

Structural models` inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naive devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction mechanisms, built by automatic model selection, are compared to various robust devices. Forecast-error taxonomies for aggregated and time-disaggregated information reveal that the impacts of structural breaks are identical between these, so no gain results, helping interpret the empirical findings. Forecast failures in structural models are driven by their deterministic terms, confirming location shifts as a pernicious cause thereof, and explaining the success of robust devices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:309
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    File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/paper309.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Money growth & inflation
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-03-26 19:31:34

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    2. repec:rim:rimwps:25-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Forecasting; Structural Breaks; Robust Forecasts; Time-disaggregation; Foreign-error Taxonomies;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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