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Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model

  • Costas Milas

    ()

    (Keele University, Centre for Economic Research and School of Economic and Management Studies)

March 2007 saw an increase of 3.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate and triggered the first explanatory letter from the Governor of the Bank of England to the Chancellor of the Exchequer since the Bank of England was granted operational independence in May 1997. The letter gave rise to a lively debate on whether policymakers should pay attention to the link between inflation and M4 money growth. Using UK data since the introduction of inflation targeting in October 1992, we show that: (i)~the relationship between inflation and M4 growth is not stable over time, and (ii)~the tendency of M4 to exert inflationary pressures is conditional on annual M4 growth exceeding 10\%. Above this threshold, a 1 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate of M4 increases annual inflation by only 0.09 percentage points, whereas a 1 percentage point increase in the disequilibrium between money and its long-run determinants increases annual inflation by only 0.07 percentage points. Since the money effects are very small, the implication is that the Monetary Policy Committee should not be particularly worried for not paying close attention to M4 money movements when setting interest rates.

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File URL: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/wpapers/kerp0707.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Research, Keele University in its series Keele Economics Research Papers with number KERP 2007/07.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2007/07
Note: I have benefited from the exchange of ideas with Tim Congdon and Chris Martin. Any remaining errors are mine.
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
Phone: +44 (0)1782 584581
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Web page: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/
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Order Information: Postal: Centre for Economic Research, Research Institute for Public Policy and Management, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
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  1. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Hamilton, James D., 1999. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt68s8157x, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  4. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  5. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  6. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 0261, European Central Bank.
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