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Non-linear inflationary dynamics: evidence from the UK

Author

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  • Michael Arghyrou
  • Christopher Martin
  • Costas Milas

Abstract

This paper estimates a variety of models of inflation using quarterly data for the UK between 1965 and 2001. We find that the persistence of inflation is nonlinear since inflation adjusts more rapidly when prices are further from the steady state and when prices are above the steady state. We find that models that assume a uniform speed of adjustment are unreliable in periods of macroeconomic stress, when inflation adjusts more rapidly. Our findings suggest a need for a more sophisticated analysis of optimal monetary policy that allows for variations in the persistence of inflation and highlight the dangers of policymakers not using the best available model of inflation. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear inflationary dynamics: evidence from the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 51-69, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:57:y:2005:i:1:p:51-69
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    Cited by:

    1. Costas Milas, 2009. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 168-182, January.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
    3. repec:rim:rimwps:25-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.
    5. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2019. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-74.
    6. Zhang, Lingxiang, 2013. "Modeling China's inflation dynamics: An MRSTAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 440-446.
    7. Michael Arghyrou, 2009. "Monetary policy before and after the euro: evidence from Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 621-643, June.
    8. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Srikanta Kundu & Nityananda Sarkar, 2018. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth: evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 390-413, September.
    9. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2015. "The Effect of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries: A Double Threshold GARCH Model," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(1), pages 34-50, April.
    10. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    11. Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2009. "Uk Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality And Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 24-44, February.

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