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Rational error correction

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  • Peter A. Tinsley

Abstract

Under general conditions, linear decision rules of agents with rational expectations are equivalent to restricted error corrections. However, empirical rejections of rational expectation restrictions are the rule, rather than the exception, in macroeconomics. Rejections often are conditioned on the assumption that agents aim to smooth only the levels of actions or are subject to geometric random delays. Generalizations of dynamic frictions on agent activities are suggested that yield closed-form, higher-order decision rules with improved statistical fits and infrequent rejections of rational expectations restrictions. Properties of these generalized "rational" error corrections are illustrated for producer pricing in manufacturing industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A. Tinsley, 1998. "Rational error correction," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-37
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    1. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear inflationary dynamics: evidence from the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 51-69, January.
    2. Fanelli, Luca, 2006. "Multi-equational linear quadratic adjustment cost models with rational expectations and cointegration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 445-456, March.
    3. Sienknecht, Sebastian, 2016. "Reassessing price adjustment costs in DSGE models," MPRA Paper 73763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
    5. Jeanfils, Philippe & Burggraeve, Koen, 2008. ""NONAME": A new quarterly model for Belgium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 118-127, January.
    6. Kozicki, Sharon, 2012. "Macro has progressed," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 23-28.
    7. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    8. Christopher Martin & Michael Arghyrou & Costas Milas, 2004. "Nonlinear inflation dynamics: evidence from the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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