The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis
This paper specifies, estimates, and evaluates the relation between inflation rate and excess money growth, defined as the difference between money supply growth and real GDP growth, using a smooth transition regression model and U.S. data. The results indicate that the relation is a nonlinear one as supported by the linearity tests. Although deterministic extrapolation exercises indicate that both the linear and nonlinear models are stable, the nonlinear model is favored by several misspecification tests. Deterministic extrapolation exercises also indicate that an increase in excess money supply has positive effect on the long-run inflation rate but the effect is not one-to-one even in high-inflation regime.
|Date of creation:||27 Apr 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bachmeier, Lance & Leelahanon, Sittisak & Li, Qi, 2007. "Money Growth And Inflation In The United States," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 113-127, February.
- Siklos, P.L., 1991. "The Money Growth - Inflation Relationship Under Hyperinflation: An Illustration from Hungary's Postwar Experience," Working Papers 91139, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1999.
" Testing for Linearity,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-76, December.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008.
"Monetary factors and inflation in Japan,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
- Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach & Toshitaka Sekine, 2007. "Monetary Factors and Inflation in Japan," Working Papers 2007-13, Swiss National Bank.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary Factors and Inflation in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2007. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," IMFS Working Paper Series 13, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS), Goethe University Frankfurt.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González, 1998.
"Some Evidence Of Smooth Transition Nonlinearity In Colombian Inflation,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
003515, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Luis Arango & Andres Gonzalez, 2001. "Some evidence of smooth transition nonlinearity in Colombian inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 155-162.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González, . "Some Evidence of Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia 105, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003.
"The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97.
- Persson, Anna & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1999. "The Net Barter Terms Of Trade : A Smooth Transition Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 335, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2008.
"Does Money Matter For Inflation In The Euro Area?,"
Contemporary Economic Policy,
Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 590-606, October.
- Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2005. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working Papers 103, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2005. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working papers 2005/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
- Crowder, William J, 1998. "The Long-Run Link between Money Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 229-43, April.
- Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001.
"Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998. "Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999.
- Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007.
"Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
- Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Excess money growth and inflation dynamics," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 657, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Roffia, Barbara & Zaghini, Andrea, 2007. "Excess money growth and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 0749, European Central Bank.
- Costas Milas, 2007.
"Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model,"
Keele Economics Research Papers
KERP 2007/07, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
- Costas Milas, 2009. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 168-182, January.
- Costas Milas, 2007. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Working Paper Series 25-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2005:i:8:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
- Aslanidis, Nektarios & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 11, Royal Economic Society.
- W.A. Bruinshoofd & B. Candelon, 2004.
"Nonlinear monetary policy in europe: fact or myth?,"
WO Research Memoranda (discontinued)
758, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bruinshoofd, Allard & Candelon, Bertrand, 2005. "Nonlinear monetary policy in Europe: fact or myth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 399-403, March.
- Thoma, Mark A, 1994. "The Effects of Money Growth on Inflation and Interest Rates across Spectral Frequency Bands," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 218-31, May.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992.
"Testing for parameter instability in linear models,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
- Tom Doan, . "STABTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's stability test for OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00199, Boston College Department of Economics.
- M Sensier & D R Osborn & N Öcal, 2002.
"Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
10, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Sensier, Marianne & Osborn, Denise R & Ocal, Nadir, 2002. " Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 315-39, September.
- Corradi, V. & Swanson, N.R., 2000.
"A Consistent Test for Nonlinear Out of Sample Predictive Accuracy,"
0012, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
- Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2002. "A smooth-transition model of the Australian unemployment rate," Working Paper Series 1002, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jul 2003.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2007. "Capturing the Link between M3 Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area – An Econometric Model to Produce Conditional Inflation Forecasts," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 93–108.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991.
"Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis,"
RCER Working Papers
296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
- Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R.W. Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 32-43.
- Neumann, Manfred J. M. & Greiber, Claus, 2004. "Inflation and core money growth in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Hansen Bruce E., 1997.
"Inference in TAR Models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
- Tom Doan, . "THRESHTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's Test for Threshold Break," Statistical Software Components RTS00210, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Gary Shelley & Frederick Wallace, 2005. "The relation between U.S. money growth and inflation: evidence from a band-pass filter," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(8), pages 1-13.
- Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Nikolic, Milan, 2000. "Money Growth-Inflation Relationship in Postcommunist Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 108-133, March.
- Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2005. "Modeling The Non-Linear Behaviour of Inflation Deviations From The Target," Working Papers 2005_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.