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Excess money growth and inflation dynamics

  • Barbara Roffia


    (European Central Bank, DG Economics)

  • Andrea Zaghini


    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

The paper analyzes the short-run impact of periods of strong monetary growth on inflation dynamics for 15 industrialized economies. We find that when robust money growth is accompanied by large increases in stock and house prices and loose credit conditions, the probability of recording an inflationary outburst over a three-year horizon is significantly increased. In contrast, significant money stock expansions which are not associated with sustained credit increases and strong dynamics in other asset prices seem to be less likely to have inflationary consequences and thus, less worrying from a policy perspective.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 657.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_657_08
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  19. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1973. "Mr. Hicks and the "Monetarists."," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 44-59, February.
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