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Identifying asset price booms and busts with quantile regressions

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  • João Sousa
  • José Ferreira Machado

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for detecting asset price booms and busts using non-parametric quantile regressions. The method consists in estimating the distribution of real stock prices as a function of fundamental determinants of stock returns, namely real economic activity and real interest rates. It is shown that changes in fundamentals affect not only the location but also the shape of the conditional distribution of stock prices. Asset price booms and busts are identified as realizations on the tails of that distribution. Then we use several indicators to analyse the behaviour of money and credit around the boom and bust episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • João Sousa & José Ferreira Machado, 2006. "Identifying asset price booms and busts with quantile regressions," Working Papers w200608, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Bhupal & Nadkarni, Avadhoot R., 2020. "Role of credit and monetary policy in determining asset prices: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Lenarčič, Črt & Zorko, Robert & Herman, Uroš & Savšek, Simon, 2016. "A Primer on Slovene House Prices Forecast," MPRA Paper 103552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gabe de Bondt & Tuomas Peltonen & Daniel Santabarbara, 2011. "Booms and busts in China's stock market: estimates based on fundamentals," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 287-300.
    4. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Andreja Lenarčič & Barbara Roffia, 2015. "An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the Euro area housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 499-518, January.
    5. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    6. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    7. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, January.
    8. James Hansen, 2011. "Does Equity Mispricing Influence Household and Firm Decisions?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    10. Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Predicting asset returns in the BRICS: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-143.
    11. Carlos Robalo Marques & João Sousa & Nuno Alves, 2007. "Is the euro area M3 abandoning us?," Working Papers w200720, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    13. Sousa, João & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Predicting risk premium under changes in the conditional distribution of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 204-218.
    14. Saumitra, Bhaduri & Raja, Sethudurai, 2012. "A note on excess money growth and inflation dynamics: evidence from threshold regression," MPRA Paper 38036, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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