Identifying asset price booms and busts with quantile regressions
This paper presents a methodology for detecting asset price booms and busts using non-parametric quantile regressions. The method consists in estimating the distribution of real stock prices as a function of fundamental determinants of stock returns, namely real economic activity and real interest rates. It is shown that changes in fundamentals affect not only the location but also the shape of the conditional distribution of stock prices. Asset price booms and busts are identified as realizations on the tails of that distribution. Then we use several indicators to analyse the behaviour of money and credit around the boom and bust episodes.
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- Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000.
"Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp360, Financial Markets Group.
- Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July.
- Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Working Paper Series 0058, European Central Bank.
- Perez-Quiros, G. & Timmermann, A., 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities," Papers 58, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
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