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Dynamic relationship between Stock and Bond returns: A GAS MIDAS copula approach

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  • Nguyen, Hoang
  • Javed, Farrukh

Abstract

Stock and bond are the two most crucial assets for portfolio allocation and risk management. This study proposes generalized autoregressive score mixed frequency data sampling (GAS MIDAS) copula models to analyze the dynamic dependence between stock returns and bond returns. A GAS MIDAS copula decomposes their relationship into a short-term dependence and a long-term dependence. While the long-term dependence is driven by related macro-finance factors using a MIDAS regression, the short-term effect follows a GAS process. Asymmetric dependence at different quantiles is also taken into account. We find that the proposed GAS MIDAS copula models are more effective in optimal portfolio allocation and improve the accuracy in risk management compared to other alternatives.

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  • Nguyen, Hoang & Javed, Farrukh, 2023. "Dynamic relationship between Stock and Bond returns: A GAS MIDAS copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 272-292.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:73:y:2023:i:c:p:272-292
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.07.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Nguyen, Hoang & Tran, Minh-Ngoc, 2023. "Bayesian predictive distributions of oil returns using mixed data sampling volatility models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GAS copulas; MIDAS; Asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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