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Macro-Finance Determinants of the Long-Run Stock-Bond Correlation: The DCC-MIDAS Specification

Author

Listed:
  • Asgharian, Hossein

    () (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Christiansen, Charlotte

    () (CREATES, Aarhus University)

  • Hou, Ai Jun

    () (School of Business, Stockholm University)

Abstract

We investigate the long-run stock-bond correlation using a novel model that combines the dynamic conditional correlation model with the mixed-data sampling approach. The long-run correlation is affected by both macro-finance variables (historical and forecasts) and the lagged realized correlation itself. Macro-finance variables and the lagged realized correlation are simultaneously significant in forecasting the long-run stock-bond correlation. The behavior of the long-run stock-bond correlation is very different when estimated taking the macro-finance variables into account. Supporting the flight-to-quality phenomenon for the total stock-bond correlation, the long-run correlation tends to be small/negative when the economy is weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Asgharian, Hossein & Christiansen, Charlotte & Hou, Ai Jun, 2014. "Macro-Finance Determinants of the Long-Run Stock-Bond Correlation: The DCC-MIDAS Specification," Working Papers 2014:37, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2014_037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:finana:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:20-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Ai Jun Hou, 2017. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation," CREATES Research Papers 2018-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Rangan Gupta & Ai Jun Hou, 2016. "Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on the Long-Run US-UK Stock Market Correlation," CREATES Research Papers 2016-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Scognamillo, 2017. "On the influence of US monetary policy on crude oil price volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 155-178, February.
    5. Skintzi, Vasiliki D., 2019. "Determinants of stock-bond market comovement in the Eurozone under model uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-28.
    6. Petar Sabtchevsky & Paul Whelan & Andrea Vedolin & Philippe Mueller, 2017. "Variance Risk Premia on Stocks and Bonds," 2017 Meeting Papers 1161, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Getachew, Yoseph Yilma, 2016. "Credit constraints, growth and inequality dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 364-376.
    9. repec:eee:reveco:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:127-139 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:srs:jasf00:v:8:y:2017:i:2:p:94-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:260-280 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. John Cotter & Mark Hallam & Kamil Yilmaz, 2017. "Mixed-Frequency Macro-Financial Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1704, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    13. Conrad, Christian & Stuermer, Karin, 2017. "On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios: international evidence," Working Papers 0636, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    14. Asgharian, Hossein & Christiansen, Charlotte & Hou, Ai Jun, 2015. "Effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on the stock and bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 10-16.
    15. Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin, 2016. "Macroeconomic expectations and the time-varying stock-bond correlation: international evidence," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145530, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Marcello Pericoli, 2018. "Macroeconomics determinants of the correlation between stocks and bonds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1198, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. repec:eee:ecolet:v:159:y:2017:i:c:p:119-122 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:eee:pacfin:v:51:y:2018:i:c:p:13-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:2:p:601-615 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Andrea BUCCI, 2017. "Forecasting Realized Volatility A Review," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 94-138.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DCC-MIDAS model; Long-run correlation; Macro-finance variables; Stock-bond correlation;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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