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Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock Bond Correlation

Author

Listed:
  • Nektarios Aslanidis

    (Department of Economics, FCEE, University Rovira Virgili)

  • Charlotte Christiansen

    (School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper re-examines the joint distribution of equity and bond returns using high frequency data. In particular, we analyze the weekly realized stock bond correlation calculated from 5-minute returns of the futures prices of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury Note. A potentially gradual transition in the realized correlation is accommodated by regime switching smooth transition regressions. The regimes are defined by the VIX/VXO volatility index and the model includes additional economic and financial explanatory variables. The empirical results show that the smooth transition model has a better fit than a linear model at forecasting in sample, whereas the linear model is more accurate for out-of-sample forecasting. It is also shown that it is important to account for differences between positive and negative realized stock bond correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen, 2010. "Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock Bond Correlation," CREATES Research Papers 2010-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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