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Quantiles of the Realized Stock-Bond Correlation and Links to the Macroeconomy

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  • Nektarios Aslanidis

    (Department of Economics, FCEE, University Rovira Virgili)

  • Charlotte Christiansen

    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper adopts quantile regressions to scrutinize the realized stock-bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. The paper provides in-sample and out-of-sample analysis and considers a large number of macro-?nance predictors well-know from the return predictability literature. Strong in-sample predictability is obtained from quantile models with factor-augmented predictors, particularly at the lower to median quantiles. Out-of-sample the quantile factor model works best at the median to upper quantiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen, 2012. "Quantiles of the Realized Stock-Bond Correlation and Links to the Macroeconomy," CREATES Research Papers 2012-34, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Dimic, Nebojsa & Kiviaho, Jarno & Piljak, Vanja & Äijö, Janne, 2016. "Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-51.
    5. Zhenxi Chen & Jan F. Kiviet & Weihong Huang, 2015. "On the integration of China's main stock exchange with the international financial market," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1505, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    6. Lin, Fu-Lai & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Marsh, Terry & Chen, Yu-Fen, 2018. "Stock and bond return relations and stock market uncertainty: Evidence from wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 285-294.
    7. Mohammad Alomari & Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a & Ghaith El-Nader & Ahmad Alkhataybeh, 2021. "Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 959-1007, October.
    8. McMillan, David G., 2019. "Cross-asset relations, correlations and economic implications," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 60-78.
    9. Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen, 2017. "Flight to Safety from European Stock Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2017-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Lee Kim, Yea & Wang, Jinghua, 2019. "Who poisons the pool? Time-varying asymmetric and nonlinear causal inference between low-risk and high-risk bonds markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-147.
    12. Gokmenoglu, Korhan K. & Hadood, Abobaker Al.Al., 2020. "Impact of US unconventional monetary policy on dynamic stock-bond correlations: Portfolio rebalancing and signalling channel effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    13. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Hammoudeh, Shawkat M., 2017. "Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 260-280.
    14. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Christos S. Savva, 2021. "Quantile Risk–Return Trade-Off," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, June.
    15. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Sclip, Alex & Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and volatility linkages between stocks and sukuk: Evidence from international markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-44.
    17. Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.
    18. Alex Sclip & Alberto Dreassi & Stefano Miani & Andrea Paltrinieri, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and volatility linkages between stocks and sukuk: Evidence from international markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 34-44, November.
    19. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Bond return predictability: Evidence from 25 OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Huang, Yingbo, 2018. "The role of investor sentiment in the long-term correlation between U.S. stock and bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 127-139.
    21. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    22. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Li, Lei, 2017. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on the long-term correlation between U.S. stock and bond markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 139-145.
    23. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.
    24. Juan Carlos Reboredo & Nader Naifar, 2017. "Do Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Prices Reflect Financial and Policy Uncertainty? A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1535-1546, July.
    25. Yang, Ann Shawing, 2020. "Misinformation corrections of corporate news: Corporate clarification announcements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Realized stock-bond correlation; Quantile regressions; Macro?nance variables; Factor analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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