An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the Euro area housing market
This article develops a model-based method to detect booms and busts in the Euro area housing market. A model is constructed and tested, whereby the user cost rate, a demographic variable, unemployment rate, disposable income, debt-to-income ratio and housing stock are fundamental variables significantly explaining house price (HP) developments. Booms/busts are identified as episodes when the HP index exceeds the levels implied by those economic fundamentals. Furthermore, a cross-check with boom/bust episodes based on other methods is carried out to substantiate the results, while the ability of the model in predicting booms/busts in real time is also tested.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 47 (2015)
Issue (Month): 5 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
- Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- Ioannis Ganoulis & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "Financial liberalization and house price dynamics in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2671-2688.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991.
"Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-1138, October.
- Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, Winter.
- Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2009. "Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit," Working Paper Series 1068, European Central Bank.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 1-27, March.
- Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States," IMF Working Papers 08/187, International Monetary Fund.
- McMillen, Daniel P., 2008. "Changes in the distribution of house prices over time: Structural characteristics, neighborhood, or coefficients?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 573-589, November.
- James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
- Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
- Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luca GATTINI & Paul HIEBERT, "undated". "Forecasting and Assessing Euro Area House Prices Through the Lens of Key Fundamentals," EcoMod2010 259600061, EcoMod.
- Gattini, Luca & Hiebert, Paul, 2010. "Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals," Working Paper Series 1249, European Central Bank.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Koenker, Roger & Zhao, Quanshui, 1996. "Conditional Quantile Estimation and Inference for Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 793-813, December.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
- Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
- Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 888, European Central Bank.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "CFFILTER: RATS procedure to perform band pass filter using Christiano-Fitzgerald method," Statistical Software Components RTS00034, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Palle S. Andersen & Neale Kennedy, 1994. "Household saving and real house prices: an international perspective," BIS Working Papers 20, Bank for International Settlements.
- Joachim Zietz & Emily Zietz & G. Sirmans, 2008. "Determinants of House Prices: A Quantile Regression Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 317-333, November.
- Joachim Zietz & Emily N. Zietz & G. Stacy Sirmans., 2007. "Determinants of House Prices: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 200706, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-164, Summer.
- Olivier D Jeanne & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices; Does "Benign Neglect" Make Sense?," IMF Working Papers 02/225, International Monetary Fund.
- Antipa, P. & Lecat, R., 2009. "The “housing bubble” and financial factors: Insights from a structural model of the French and Spanish residential markets," Working papers 267, Banque de France.
- Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
- Liao, Wen-Chi & Wang, Xizhu, 2012. "Hedonic house prices and spatial quantile regression," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 16-27.
- Diana Kasparova & Michael White, 2001. "The Responsiveness Of House Prices To Macroeconomic Forces: A Cross-Countr Y Comparison," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 385-416.
- Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
- Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
- Michelle L. Barnes & Anthony W. Hughes, 2002. "A quantile regression analysis of the cross section of stock market returns," Working Papers 02-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- William W. Alberts, 1962. "Business Cycles, Residential Construction Cycles, and the Mortgage Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 263-263.
- Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
- Lecat, R. & Mésonnier, J-S., 2005. "Dynamique des prix des logements : quel rôle des facteurs financiers ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 133, pages 29-47.
- José Ferreira Machado & João Sousa, 2006. "Identifying asset price booms and busts with quantile regressions," Working Papers w200608, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)