Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals
This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations with the macroeconomy. A quarterly vector error correction model is estimated over 1970-2009 using supply and demand forces central to the determination of euro area house prices in equilibrium and their dynamics: housing investment, real disposable income per capita and a mixed maturity measure of the real interest rate. In addition to house price forecasts using the resulting reduced form equation, a structural decomposition of the system is obtained employing a common trends framework of King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991), which allows for the identification and economic interpretation of permanent and transitory shocks. The main results are twofold. First, the reduced form model tracks closely turning points in house prices when examining out-of-sample one- and two- step ahead forecasts. Moreover, the model suggests that euro area housing was overvalued in recent years, implying a period of stagnation to bring housing valuation back in line with its modelled fundamentals. Second, housing demand and financing cost shocks appear to have contributed strongly to the dynamism in euro area house prices over the sample period. While much of the increase appears to reflect a permanent component, a transitory component has also contributed from 2005 onwards. Specification tests suggest a robustness of the small model to alternative specifications, along with validity of the long-run restrictions. JEL Classification: R21, R31, C32
|Date of creation:||Oct 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen Malpezzi, 1998.
"A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices,"
Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers
98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010.
"Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 659, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008.
"Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kieran McQuinn & Nuala Oâ€™Donnell & Mary Ryan, 2005. "Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland's model," Chapters, in: Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Bharat Barot, 2001.
"An Econometric Demandsupply Model For Swedish Private Housing,"
European Journal of Housing Policy,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 417-444, December.
- Bharat Barot, 2001. "An Econometric Demand-Supply Model For Swedish Private Housing," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 417-444.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006.
"Does Information Help Recovering Structural Shocks from Past Observations?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/166169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Working Paper Series 0632, European Central Bank.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. " Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-32, September.
- Bharat Barot & Alfred Kanis, 2001. "An Econometric Demand-Supply Model for Swedish Private Housing," ERES eres2001_112, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0972, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.