Are Recent Increases of Residential Property Prices in Vienna and Austria Justified by Fundamentals?
Residential property prices in Vienna have risen sharply since 2005 and to a lesser degree throughout Austria as well. This paper assesses whether the upward movement is justified by fundamental factors or whether it is exaggerated, using a fundamental residential property price indicator for Vienna and Austria to identify deviations between actual and fundamental real estate prices. The indicator consists of seven subindicators that address a variety of perspectives, including those related to households, investors and systemic factors. For Vienna, the indicator points to an increasing degree of overvaluation in property prices (by 20% in the second quarter of 2013). The primary driver behind this trend, which has recently experienced an especially pronounced surge, is the relative real estate price (compared to rentals, consumer prices and construction costs), which is only weakly mitigated by the increased affordability of home ownership. Of note, the overvaluation evident in the indicator does not suggest that an abrupt price correction will occur in the near future. Rather, such imbalances may subside gradually, as happened in the wake of the price hikes experienced in the early 1990s. For Austria overall, the indicator points to a persistent 6% undervaluation, despite a recent uptick in prices. Diminishing loan growth and declining household indebtedness suggest that a high percentage of equity financing is being used in property investments. At present, therefore, the recent increases of residential property prices in Vienna and Austria do not pose a serious threat to financial stability.
Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2010. "Composite Leading Indicator for the Austrian Economy. Methodology and "Real-time" Performance," WIFO Working Papers 369, WIFO.
- Luca GATTINI & Paul HIEBERT, .
"Forecasting and Assessing Euro Area House Prices Through the Lens of Key Fundamentals,"
- Gattini, Luca & Hiebert, Paul, 2010. "Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals," Working Paper Series 1249, European Central Bank.
- Refet Gurkaynak, 2005.
"Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock,"
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, 02.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Lenarčič, Andreja & Roffia, Barbara, 2012. "An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the euro area housing market," Working Paper Series 1493, European Central Bank.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
- Berlemann, Michael & Freese, Julia & Knoth, Sven, 2012.
"Eyes Wide Shut? The U.S. House Market Bubble through the Lense of Statistical Process Control,"
124/2012, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
- Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese & Sven Knoth, 2012. "Eyes Wide Shut? The U.S. House Market Bubble through the Lense of Statistical Process Control," CESifo Working Paper Series 3962, CESifo Group Munich.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003.
"Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005.
"The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation,"
2005/14, Norges Bank.
- Garnier, Julien & Wilhelmsen, Bjørn-Roger, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation," Working Paper Series 0546, European Central Bank.
- Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002.
"Fads or bubbles?,"
Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
- Nicolas Albacete & Karin Wagner, 2009. "Housing Finance of Austrian Households," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 62–92.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2009. "Changes in the international comovement of stock returns and asymmetric macroeconomic shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-305, April.
- Christian Hott & Terhi Jokipii, 2012. "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-07, Swiss National Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2013:i:4:b:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudia Kwapil)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.