Modeling The Non-Linear Behaviour of Inflation Deviations From The Target
This study tests for and models non-linearities in inflation deviations from the target in five OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting over the 1990s. Our tests reject the linearity hypothesis and we show that the exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model is capable of capturing the non-linear behavior ofinflation misalignments. The extent of inflation deviations from the target varies across the OECD countries, with countries that consistently undershoot the target having a rapid adjustment process, whereas countries that overshoot the target have a slower revision back to equilibrium.
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- Kontonikas, A., 2004.
"Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence from GARCH modelling,"
Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-543, May.
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- A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
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- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.