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Inflation Targeting and the Stationarity of Inflation: New Results from an ESTAR Unit Root Test

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  • Andros Gregoriou
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

In this paper we examine the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that have adopted inflation targeting. Unlike previous studies we utilize a non-linear mean reverting adjustment mechanism for inflation and we discover that although deviations of inflation from the target can exhibit a region of non-stationary behavior, overall they are stationary indicating successful targeting implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and the Stationarity of Inflation: New Results from an ESTAR Unit Root Test," Working Papers 2005_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    2. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    4. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, May.
    5. Christos Ioannidis & David A. Peel & Michael J. Peel, 2003. "The Time Series Properties of Financial Ratios: Lev Revisited," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5-6), pages 699-714.
    6. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, pages 11-16.
    7. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-444, July-Aug..
    8. Dirk Te Velde, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 178, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, pages 195-214.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bob Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics in the US -A Nonlinear Perspective," FMG Discussion Papers dp601, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "The long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: New evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 166-176, April.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," Working Papers 2009/2, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
    4. Alberto Montagnoli & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2007_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Habibullah, M.S. & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M. & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2008. "Testing nonlinear convergence in Malaysia,1965-2003," MPRA Paper 12110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani & Syed Akif Hasan & Amber Osman & Junaid Minhas, 2013. "Are the inflations of world co-integrated?," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 7(1), pages 9-18, Spring.
    7. Bertram, Philip & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Stahl, Gerhard, 2011. "About the Impact of Model Risk on Capital Reserves: A Quantitative Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-469, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    8. Ventosa-Santaularària, Daniel & Gómez, Manuel, 2006. "Inflation and Breaks: the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test," MPRA Paper 58773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    10. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Juan C. Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2011. "Is there asymmetric behaviour in African inflation? A non-linear approach," NCID Working Papers 03/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    11. Emmanuel Anoruo & Vasudeva N.R. Murthy, 2014. "Testing Nonlinear Inflation Convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.
    12. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.
    13. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "The stationarity of inflation in Croatia: anti-inflation stabilization program and the change in persistence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 45-58, February.
    14. repec:sbe:breart:v:29:y:2009:i:1:a:2693 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of inflation differentials in the euro area: Evidence from a threshold unit root test," Research in Economics, Elsevier, pages 133-144.
    16. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2015. "Asymmetric Behaviour of Inflation around the Target in Inflation-Targeting Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(5), pages 486-504, November.
    17. repec:eee:jebusi:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:45-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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