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Risk Spillovers in Oil-Related CDS, Stock and Credit Markets

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Abstract

This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004-2011 period and the 2009-2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk relationships and short-run causal relationships among the four oil-related Credit Default Swaps (CDS) indexes, the (expected equity volatility) VIX index and the (swaption expected volatility) SMOVE index for the full period than for the recovery subperiod. The auto sector CDS spread is the most error-correcting in the long run and also leads in the risk discovery process in the short run. On the other hand, the CDS spread of the highly regulated, natural monopoly utility sector does not error correct. The four oil-related CDS spread indexes are responsive to VIX in the short- and long-run, while no index is sensitive to SMOVE which, in turn, unilaterally assembles risk migration from VIX. The 2007-2008 Great Recession seems to have led to “localization” and less migration of credit and market risk in the oil-related sectors.

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File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1117.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 11/17.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:11/17
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Keywords: Risk; Sectoral CDS; VIX; SMOVE; MOVE; Adjustments;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
  • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
  • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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Cited by:

  1. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know About DCC," Working Papers in Economics 13/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  2. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know About the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation," Working Papers in Economics 13/21, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  3. Arreola Hernandez, Jose, 2014. "Are oil and gas stocks from the Australian market riskier than coal and uranium stocks? Dependence risk analysis and portfolio optimization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 528-536.
  4. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2014. "Testing for asymmetric causality from U.S. equity returns to commodity futures returns," Working Papers 2014-545, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  5. repec:dgr:uvatin:20130078 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:dgr:uvatin:2013048 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Blumenstock, Hendrik & von Grone, Udo & Mehlhorn, Marc & Merkl, Johannes & Pietz, Marcus, 2012. "Einflussfaktoren von CDS-Spreads als Maß für das aktuelle Bonitätsrisiko: Liefert das Rating eine Erklärung?," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-03, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.

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