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Risk Spillovers in Oil-Related CDS, Stock and Credit Markets

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Abstract

This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004-2011 period and the 2009-2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk relationships and short-run causal relationships among the four oil-related Credit Default Swaps (CDS) indexes, the (expected equity volatility) VIX index and the (swaption expected volatility) SMOVE index for the full period than for the recovery subperiod. The auto sector CDS spread is the most error-correcting in the long run and also leads in the risk discovery process in the short run. On the other hand, the CDS spread of the highly regulated, natural monopoly utility sector does not error correct. The four oil-related CDS spread indexes are responsive to VIX in the short- and long-run, while no index is sensitive to SMOVE which, in turn, unilaterally assembles risk migration from VIX. The 2007-2008 Great Recession seems to have led to “localization” and less migration of credit and market risk in the oil-related sectors.

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  • Shawkat Hammoudeh & Tengdong Liu & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Risk Spillovers in Oil-Related CDS, Stock and Credit Markets," Working Papers in Economics 11/17, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:11/17
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    Cited by:

    1. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Naifar, Nader & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Directional predictability from oil market uncertainty to sovereign credit spreads of oil-exporting countries: Evidence from rolling windows and crossquantilogram analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 327-339.
    2. Pavlova, Ivelina & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Parhizgari, Ali M., 2018. "A dynamic spillover analysis of crude oil effects on the sovereign credit risk of exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 10-22.
    3. Peri, M. & Vandone, D. & Baldi, L., 2015. "Volatility Spillover between Water, Food and Energy," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212627, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Blumenstock, Hendrik & von Grone, Udo & Mehlhorn, Marc & Merkl, Johannes & Pietz, Marcus, 2012. "Einflussfaktoren von CDS-Spreads als Maß für das aktuelle Bonitätsrisiko: Liefert das Rating eine Erklärung?," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-03, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Spillover effects in oil-related CDS markets during and after the sub-prime crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things you should know about DCC," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-048/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Guesmi, Khaled & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Abid, Ilyes, 2018. "On the determinants of industry-CDS index spreads: Evidence from a nonlinear setting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-254.
    8. Yang, Lu & Yang, Lei & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "Determinants of dependence structures of sovereign credit default swap spreads between G7 and BRICS countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 19-34.
    9. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2017. "The kidnapping of Europe: High-order moments' transmission between developed and emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 96-115.
    10. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know about the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, June.
    11. Nader Naifar & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Do Energy and Banking CDS Sector Spreads Reflect Financial Risks and Economic Policy Uncertainty? A Time-Scale Decomposition Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 507-534, August.
    12. Arreola Hernandez, Jose, 2014. "Are oil and gas stocks from the Australian market riskier than coal and uranium stocks? Dependence risk analysis and portfolio optimization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 528-536.
    13. Karol Szafranek & Marek Kwas & Grzegorz Szafrański & Zuzanna Wośko, 2020. "Common Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia in the North American Oil and Gas Industry. A Panel BMA Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(23), pages 1-23, November.
    14. Massimo Peri & Daniela Vandone & Lucia Baldi, 2017. "Volatility Spillover between Water, Energy and Food," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Toparli, Elif Akay, 2018. "On the risk spillover across the oil market, stock market, and the oil related CDS sectors: A volatility impulse response approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 813-827.
    16. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-545 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mensi, Walid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hkiri, Besma & Hamed Al Yahyaee, Khamis, 2019. "Long-run relationships between US financial credit markets and risk factors: Evidence from the quantile ARDL approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 101-110.
    19. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    20. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2017. "Contagion, volatility persistence and volatility spill-overs: The case of energy markets during the European financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 217-227.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; Sectoral CDS; VIX; SMOVE; MOVE; Adjustments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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