Testing for a time-varying price-cost markup in the Euro area inlation process
Empirical models of inflation often incorporate equilibrium correction effects based upon levels of prices and input costs. Such models assume that the steady-state price-cost markup is constant, but recent research suggests that this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has undergone major structural reforms over the last 25 years. We allow for permanent shifts in the markup factor through estimating an inflation equation that includes a time-varying intercept. The model suggests that a reduction in the markup contributed to disinflation in the Euro area during the period 1981-2000.
|Date of creation:||28 May 2004|
|Note:||This is a revised version of ECB Working Paper 306 (Bowdler and Jansen (2004)), which was written while the second author was a Research Visitor to DG Research, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, from February through June 2003. The work benefitted greatly from a one week visit from the first author to the same institution in May 2003. The first author acknowledges financial support from a British Academy post-doctoral fellowship. The revision has been carried out while the second author was visiting Department of Economics, University of California San Diego. The hospitality and excellent working conditions o ered there are gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful for the constructive criticism provided by an anonymous ECB referee, and for comments from James Hamilton, Heino Bohn Nielsen and seminar participants at Norges Bank, University of California San Diego and Brunel University. The views expressed in this paper represent exclusively the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank or Norges Bank.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo|
Phone: +47 22 31 60 00
Fax: +47 22 41 31 05
Web page: http://www.norges-bank.no/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998.
"Modeling Inflation in Australia,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-449, October.
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Gordon De Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling inflation in Australia," International Finance Discussion Papers 530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000.
"The Relationship Between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Plus One Economies,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0242, Econometric Society.
- Banerjee, A. & Russell, B., 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 plus One Economies," Economics Working Papers eco2000/7, European University Institute.
- Banerjee, A. & Russell, B., 1999. "The Relationship Between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Plus One Economies," Economics Series Working Papers 99205, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 2003.
" Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 177-196, April.
- Eilev S. Jansen, 2004.
"Modelling inflation in the Euro Area,"
2004/10, Norges Bank.
- Gwin, Carl R & Taylor, Beck A, 2004. "The Role of Search Costs in Determining the Relationship between Inflation and Profit Margins," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 139-149, February.
- Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003.
"Globalization and global disinflation,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
- Nath, Hiranya K., 2004. "Inflation and relative price variability: short-run vs. long-run," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 363-369, March.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998.
"Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis,"
Economics Working Papers
341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert S. Chirinko & Steven M. Fazzari, 2000.
"Market Power and Inflation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 509-513, August.
- Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
- Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Inflation and output forecasts for South Africa: monetary transmission implications," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-23, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
- Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
- Bowdler, Christopher & Jansen, Eilev S., 2004. "A markup model of inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0306, European Central Bank.
- David Bowman, 2003. "Market power and inflation," International Finance Discussion Papers 783, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
- Roland Benabou, 1992. "Inflation and Efficiency in Search Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(2), pages 299-329.
- Allan W. Gregory & Alfred A. Haug & Nicoletta Lomuto, 2004. "Mixed signals among tests for cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 89-98.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2004_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.