IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v27y2015icp98-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Pradhan, Rudra P.
  • Arvin, Mak B.
  • Bahmani, Sahar

Abstract

This paper investigates cointegration relationships and Granger causality nexus in a trivariate framework among economic growth, inflation, and stock market development. Utilizing three measures of stock market development and employing a panel vector autoregressive model, we study 34 OECD countries over the time period of 1960–2012. Our novel panel-data estimation method allows us to identify important causal links between the variables both in the short run and in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2015. "Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 98-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:27:y:2015:i:c:p:98-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2015.04.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1044028315000277
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Leigh & Marco Rossi, 2002. "Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/231, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Chaido Dritsaki & Melina Dritsaki-Bargiota, 2005. "The Causal Relationship between Stock, Credit Market and Economic Development: An Empirical Evidence for Greece," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 113-127, March.
    3. Kwon, Chung S. & Shin, Tai S., 1999. "Cointegration and causality between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-81.
    4. T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen & Kuan-Min Wang, 2010. "Causality between housing returns, inflation and economic growth with endogenous breaks," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 95-115.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    6. Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997. "Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
    7. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2009. "Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1414-1419, November.
    8. Ben Jedidia, Khoutem & Boujelbène, Thouraya & Helali, Kamel, 2014. "Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 883-898.
    9. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    10. Xing-Qiu Zhao, 1999. "Stock prices, inflation and output: evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(8), pages 509-511.
    11. Naceur, Samy Ben & Ghazouani, Samir, 2007. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 297-315, June.
    12. Suleiman Abu‐Bader & Aamer S. Abu‐Qarn, 2008. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Six MENA Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 803-817, November.
    13. Kar, Muhsin & Nazlıoğlu, Şaban & Ağır, Hüseyin, 2011. "Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 685-693.
    14. Thouraya Boujelbene & Younes Boujelbene, 2010. "Long run determinants and short run dynamics of inflation in Tunisia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1255-1263.
    15. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    16. Andres, Javier & Hernando, Ignacio & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2004. "The role of the financial system in the growth-inflation link: the OECD experience," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 941-961, November.
    17. Ilker Domaç & Eray M. Yücel, 2005. "What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 141-164, April.
    18. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    19. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    20. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
    21. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    22. Cole, Rebel A. & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Qiongbing, 2008. "Bank stock returns and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 995-1007, June.
    23. Bruce Morley, 2002. "Output, consumption and the stock market: implications for European convergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 317-323.
    24. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    25. Cheng, Su-Yin, 2012. "Substitution or complementary effects between banking and stock markets: Evidence from financial openness in Taiwan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 508-520.
    26. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    27. Levine, Ross, 1991. " Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-1465, September.
    28. Xiaohui Liu & Peter Sinclair, 2008. "Does the linkage between stock market performance and economic growth vary across Greater China?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 505-508.
    29. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    30. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
    31. Liang, Qi & Teng, Jian-Zhou, 2006. "Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 395-411.
    32. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2007. "Euro area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24.
    33. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    34. Rudra P. Pradhan, 2011. "Financial Development, Growth and Stock Market Development: The Trilateral Analysis in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 134-145.
    35. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 323-339, May.
    36. Billmeier, Andreas & Massa, Isabella, 2009. "What drives stock market development in emerging markets--institutions, remittances, or natural resources?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-35, March.
    37. Li, Kai, 2007. "The growth in equity market size and trading activity: An international study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 59-90, January.
    38. Ali F. Darrat & Khaled Elkhal & Brent McCallum, 2006. "Finance and Macroeconomic Performance. Some Evidence for Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 5-28, May.
    39. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    40. Rousseau, Peter L. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation, financial development, and growth: A trilateral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 310-324, December.
    41. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    42. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    43. Vaona, Andrea, 2012. "Inflation And Growth In The Long Run: A New Keynesian Theory And Further Semiparametric Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 94-132, February.
    44. Andong Zhu & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2004. "Stock Market Liquidity and Economic Growth: a Critical Appraisal of the Levine/Zervos Model," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-8.
    45. Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van & Buelens, Frans & Cuyvers, Ludo, 2006. "Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 13-38, January.
    46. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    47. Han Hou & Su-Yin Cheng, 2010. "The roles of stock market in the finance-growth nexus: time series cointegration and causality evidence from Taiwan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(12), pages 975-981.
    48. Rashid, Abdul, 2008. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Performance: Testing for Dynamic Linkages with a Known Structural Break," MPRA Paper 26937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    50. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    51. Sangho Kim & Hyunjoon Lim & Donghyun Park, 2013. "Does productivity growth lower inflation in Korea?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2183-2190, June.
    52. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    53. Ang, James B. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2007. "Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 215-233, September.
    54. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    55. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & PING HUA & ZHICHENG LIANG, 2006. "Financial Development, Economic Efficiency, And Productivity Growth: Evidence From China," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(1), pages 27-52, March.
    56. Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2001. "The Relationship between REITs Returns and Inflation: A Vector Error Correction Approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 103-115, March.
    57. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2012. "Macroeconomic environment, country risk and stock market performance: Evidence for Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1666-1678.
    58. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    59. R. I. Udegbunam, 2002. "Openness, Stock Market Development, and Industrial Growth in Nigeria," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 69-92.
    60. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando, 1999. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD," NBER Chapters,in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 315-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Rousseau, Peter L & Wachtel, Paul, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Economic Performance: Historical Evidence from Five Industrialized Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 657-678, November.
    62. Enisan, Akinlo A. & Olufisayo, Akinlo O., 2009. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 162-171.
    63. N M Odhiambo, 2008. "Financial Development in Kenya: a Dynamic Test of the Finance-led Growth Hypothesis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(2), pages 21-36, September.
    64. Liu, Wan-Chun & Hsu, Chen-Min, 2006. "The role of financial development in economic growth: The experiences of Taiwan, Korea, and Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 667-690, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liyin Shen & Chenyang Shuai & Liudan Jiao & Yongtao Tan & Xiangnan Song, 2016. "A Global Perspective on the Sustainable Performance of Urbanization," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(8), pages 1-16, August.
    2. repec:rej:journl:v:19:y:2016:i:61:p:211-226 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spr:eurase:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s40822-018-0111-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ziaurrahman, Muhammad & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Is financial sector development an engine of economic growth? evidence from India," MPRA Paper 72121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:69-:d:161634 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:jebusi:v:96:y:2018:i:c:p:15-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:phsmap:v:493:y:2018:i:c:p:107-115 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Stock market development; Economic growth; Panel-VAR; Granger causality; OECD countries;

    JEL classification:

    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:27:y:2015:i:c:p:98-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.