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Inflation And Growth In The Long Run: A New Keynesian Theory And Further Semiparametric Evidence


  • Vaona, Andrea


This paper explores the influence of inflation on economic growth both theoretically and empirically. We propose to merge an endogenous growth model of learning by doing with a New Keynesian one with sticky wages. We show that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of working time is a key parameter for the shape of the inflation–growth nexus. When it is set equal to zero, the inflation–growth nexus is weak and hump-shaped. When it is greater than zero, inflation has a sizable and negative effect on growth. Endogenizing the length of wage contracts does not lead to inflation superneutrality in the presence of a fixed cost of wage resetting. Adopting various semiparametric and instrumental-variable estimation approaches on a cross-country/time-series data set, we show that increasing inflation reduces real economic growth, consistent with our theoretical model with a positive intertemporal elasticity of substitution of working time.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaona, Andrea, 2012. "Inflation And Growth In The Long Run: A New Keynesian Theory And Further Semiparametric Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 94-132, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:16:y:2012:i:01:p:94-132_00

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    Cited by:

    1. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Pelloni, Alessandra & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Endogenous growth, monetary shocks and nominal rigidities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 103-107.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "The Growth-Inflation Nexus for the US over 1801-2013: A Semiparametric Approach," Working Papers 15-17, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    3. Koki Oikawa & Kozo Ueda, 2015. "Short- and long-run tradeoff monetary easing," CAMA Working Papers 2015-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Vaona, Andrea, 2013. "Money illusion and the long-run Phillips curve in staggered wage-setting models," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 88-99.
    5. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    6. Ehrhart, Hélène & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2014. "Debt, seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    7. Chu, Angus C. & Lai, Ching-Chong & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2010. "A tale of two growth engines: The interactive effects of monetary policy and intellectual property rights," MPRA Paper 30105, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2011.
    8. Andrea Vaona, 2013. "The Most Beautiful Variations on Fair Wages and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1069-1084, September.
    9. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    10. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Monetary policy and growth with trend inflation and financial frictions," MPRA Paper 54606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2015. "Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 98-111.
    12. Stefan Reitz & Ulf D. Slopek, 2014. "Fixing The Phillips Curve: The Case Of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity In The Us," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 122-131, March.
    13. Angus C., Chu & Lei, Ning & Dongming, Zhu, 2016. "Human Capital and Innovation in a Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," MPRA Paper 70453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    15. repec:eee:eecrev:v:98:y:2017:i:c:p:392-409 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Furukawa, Yuichi, 2013. "Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Economy," MPRA Paper 50510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ondřej Machek & Luboš Smrčka, 2015. "An updated Model of Financial Fragility based on General Equilibrium Analysis," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(4), pages 23-42.
    18. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Furukawa, Yuichi & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2017. "Inflation and economic growth in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous entry of heterogeneous firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 392-409.
    19. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Lai, Ching-Chong & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2013. "Monetary Policy, R&D and Economic Growth in an Open Economy," MPRA Paper 47364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Rossi, Lorenza, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with endogenous growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 274-285.
    21. Andrea Vaona, 2013. "Inflation gifts and endogenous growth through learning-by-doing," Working Papers 09/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    22. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Lai, Ching-Chong & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2015. "Inflation, R&D and growth in an open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 360-374.
    23. Chien-Yu Huang & Juin-Jen Chang & Lei Ji, 2013. "Cash-In-Advance Constraint on R&D in a Schumpeterian Growth Model with an Endogenous Market Structure," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 13-A009, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    24. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Banks: Evolution and Innovation in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 23847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General


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