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Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Performance: Testing for Dynamic Linkages with a Known Structural Break

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  • Rashid, Abdul

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic interactions between four macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Pakistan, using cointegration and Granger causality tests that are robust to structural breaks. The results strongly suggest cointegration between the stock prices and macroeconomic variables viz. consumer prices, industrial production, exchange rate and the market rate of interest. Estimates of bivariate error-correction models reveal that there is long-run bidirectional causation between the stock prices and all the said macroeconomic variables with the exception of consumer prices that only lead to stock prices. The results also provide some evidence that the stock prices Granger-caused by changes in interest rates in the short run. However, the analysis is unable to explore any short-run causation between the stock prices and the remaining three macroeconomic variables. It may therefore be stated that the association between the health of the stock market in the sense of a rising share prices and the health of the economy is only a long-run phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Rashid, Abdul, 2008. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Performance: Testing for Dynamic Linkages with a Known Structural Break," MPRA Paper 26937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26937
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26937/1/MPRA_paper_26937.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-22.
    2. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    3. Rubina Shaheen & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Effect of Credit Rating on Firm Performance and Stock Return; Evidence form KSE Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:104, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    4. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Neville R. Norman & John H. Hall, 2014. "The dynamics of banking sector and stock market maturity and the performance of Asian economies: Time series evidence," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 16-44, May.
    5. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:136-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2015. "Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 98-111.
    7. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Hall, John H. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173.
    8. Fakir Tajul Islam & Md. Shahnawaz Mostofa & Afrida Akhter Tithi, 2017. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Capital Market Performance in Bangladesh: A Case of Dhaka Stock Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 306-311, January.
    9. Prakash Kumar Shrestha Ph.D. & Biggyan Raj Subedi, 2014. "Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 26(2), pages 25-40, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Returns; Exchange Rates; Interest Rates; Industrial Output; Prices; Economic Activity; Structural Breaks; Additive-Outlier Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • P34 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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