IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/pubfin/v28y2000i4p372-389.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Municipal Bonds and Tax Arbitrage: A Cointegration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • H. Youn Kim

    (Western Kentucky University)

  • Junsoo Lee

    (University of Central Florida)

  • Stephen E. Lile

    (Western Kentucky University)

  • James R. Ramsey

    (University of Louisville)

Abstract

This article presents a new, cointegration approach to test a tax arbitrage opportunity in holding municipal bonds. Noticing that the variables of interest are nonstationary, two alternative cointegration tests are used to examine the relationship that may exist (1) between the yield on municipal bonds and the after-tax yield on corporate bonds and (2) between the explicit tax rate on corporate bonds and the implicit tax rate on municipal bonds. Previous studies do not take into account the time-series properties of the variables involved, assuming tacitly that they are stationary. Weekly bond yield data together with New Jersey and federal income tax rates are used, and various unit root and cointegration tests are employed to test for stationarity and for cointegration between the variables. The evidence fails to support the tax arbitrage hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Youn Kim & Junsoo Lee & Stephen E. Lile & James R. Ramsey, 2000. "Municipal Bonds and Tax Arbitrage: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(4), pages 372-389, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:28:y:2000:i:4:p:372-389
    DOI: 10.1177/109114210002800405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/109114210002800405
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/109114210002800405?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Trzcinka, Charles A, 1982. "The Pricing of Tax-Exempt Bonds and the Miller Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 907-923, September.
    3. Fortune, Peter, 1988. "Municipal Bond Yields: Whose Tax Rates Matter?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 41(2), pages 219-33, June.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Metcalf, G.E., 1991. "The Role Of Federal Taxation In The Supply Of Municipal Bonds: Evidence From Municipal Governments," Papers 72, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - John M. Olin Program.
    6. Sugato Chakravarty & Asani Sarkar, 1999. "Liquidity in U.S. fixed income markets: a comparison of the bid-ask spread in corporate, government and municipal bond markets," Staff Reports 73, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Fortune, Peter, 1988. "Municipal Bond Yields: Whose Tax Rates Matter?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 41(2), pages 219-233, June.
    8. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1986. "Tax rates and interest rates on tax-exempt securities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 29-41.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 344-359, December.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. Kochin, Levis A & Parks, Richard W, 1988. " Was the Tax-Exempt Bond Market Inefficient or Were Future Expected Tax Rates Negative?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 913-931, September.
    12. Peter Fortune, 1996. "Do municipal bond yields forecast tax policy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 29-48.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    14. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    15. James M. Poterba, 1986. "Explaining the Yield Spread between Taxable and Tax-exempt Bonds: The Role of Expected Tax Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in State and Local Public Finance, pages 5-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. P.C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(4), pages 344-359, December.
    18. Yawitz, Jess B., 1978. "Risk Premia on Municipal Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 475-485, September.
    19. Peter Fortune, 1992. "The municipal bond market, part II: problems and policies," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 47-64.
    20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    21. Park, Joon Y. & Sung, Jaewhan, 1994. "Testing for Unit Roots in Models with Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 917-936, December.
    22. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    23. Kidwell, David S & Trzcinka, Charles A, 1982. "Municipal Bond Pricing and the New York City Fiscal Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1239-1246, December.
    24. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    25. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    26. Buser, Stephen A. & Hess, Patrick J., 1986. "Empirical determinants of the relative yields on taxable and tax-exempt securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 335-355, December.
    27. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    28. Corbae, Dean & Lim, Kian-Guan & Ouliaris, Sam, 1992. "On Cointegration and Tests of Forward Market Unbiasedness," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 728-732, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1999. "The changing long-run linkage between yields on Treasury and municipal bonds and the 1986 Tax Act," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 101-119.
    2. Thomas Luke Spreen & Ed Gerrish, 2022. "Taxes and tax‐exempt bonds: A literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, September.
    3. H. Youn Kim & Junsoo Lee, 2001. "Quasi-fixed inputs and long-run equilibrium in production: a cointegration analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 41-57.
    4. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Xu, Kuan, 1997. "Long-term equilibria of yields on taxable and tax-exempt bonds," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-143.
    5. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    6. Slemrod, Joel & Greimel, Timothy, 1999. "Did Steve Forbes scare the US municipal bond market?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 81-96, October.
    7. Kuriyama Nina, 2016. "Testing cointegration in quantile regressions with an application to the term structure of interest rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 107-121, April.
    8. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2016. "The Fisher effect in the presence of time-varying coefficients," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 495-511.
    9. Ching-Chuan Tsong & Cheng-Feng Lee & Li-Ju Tsai & Te-Chung Hu, 2016. "The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1085-1113, November.
    10. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
    11. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
    12. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    13. Eiji Kurozumi & Yoichi Arai, 2007. "Efficient estimation and inference in cointegrating regressions with structural change," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 545-575, July.
    14. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    15. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
    16. Graham, John R., 1999. "Do personal taxes affect corporate financing decisions?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-185, August.
    17. Poterba, James M., 1989. "Tax reform and the market for tax-exempt debt," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 537-562, August.
    18. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    19. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2002. "Long-Run Relationship between Consumption and Income in Japan: Tests of the Deterministic Cointegration Restriction," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278, June.
    20. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:28:y:2000:i:4:p:372-389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.