Reflections on Econometric Methodology
General issues about the methodology of empirical econometric research are discussed. It is argued that the most successful paradigms for applied work are the ones that have a capacity to survive and to evolve into more useful forms as these are needed. Paradigms that embrace progressive modeling principles, such as those espoused by David Hendry, seem most amenable to this criterion. It is also argued that econometric theory has a large role to play in helping us to understand the strengths and the weaknesses of a methodology and to codify what its prescriptions entail. The time series methodology of David Hendry is considered in some detail. It is shown that the Hendry methodology comes remarkable close to achieving an optimal inference procedure for long run structural relationships even though it is conducted on a single equation basis. The findings indicate that the methodology may be improved further to achieve results that are equivalent to optimal estimation.
|Date of creation:||Dec 1988|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in The Economic Record (December 1988), 344-359|
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- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987.
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- Phillips, Peter C B & Park, Joon Y, 1988.
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- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 801, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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- Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
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- Phillips, P.C.B., 1983.
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Handbook of Econometrics,
in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1982. "Exact Small Sample Theory in the Simultaneous Equations Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 621, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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