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On Rereading Haavelmo: A Retrospective View of Econometric Modeling

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  • Spanos, Aris

Abstract

The main aim of the paper is to reevaluate the methodological contributions of Tinbergen and Haavelmo in the context of the current discussions on econometric modeling and propose a reformulation of the Haavelmo methodology. The paper argues that the textbook methodology constitutes a less flexible version of Tinbergen's approach and apart from the probabilistic language, it has little in common with the methodology in Haavelmo's 1944 monograph, commonly acknowledged as having founded modern econometrics. The methodology in this monograph includes several important elements which have either been discarded or never fully integrated within the textbook approach. A re-synthesis of these elements gives rise to an alternative methodological framework. This framework can be used to meet most of the objections to the textbook methodology and provides a framework in the context of which the recent methodological controversies can be evaluated.

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  • Spanos, Aris, 1989. "On Rereading Haavelmo: A Retrospective View of Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 405-429, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:5:y:1989:i:03:p:405-429_01
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    1. repec:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:1:p:119-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aris Spanos, 2006. "Revisiting the omitted variables argument: Substantive vs. statistical adequacy," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-218.
    3. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2001. "Identification and dimension of the NAIRU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 585-611, December.
    4. Aris Spanos, 2009. "Statistical Misspecification and the Reliability of Inference: The Simple T-Test in the Presence of Markov Dependence," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 25, pages 165-213.
    5. Spanos, Aris, 1995. "On theory testing in econometrics : Modeling with nonexperimental data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 189-226, May.
    6. Biørn, Erik, 2017. "Identification, Instruments, Omitted Variables, and Rudimentary Models: Fallacies in the ‘Experimental Approach’ to Econometrics," Memorandum 13/2017, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. Mizon, Grayham E, 1991. " Modelling Relative Price Variability and Aggregate Inflation in the United Kingdom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 189-211.
    8. Bernt P. Stigum, 2016. "The Status of Bridge Principles in Applied Econometrics," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Spanos, Aris, 2010. "Statistical adequacy and the trustworthiness of empirical evidence: Statistical vs. substantive information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1436-1452, November.
    10. Aris Spanos & Niki Papadopoulou, 2013. "A Small Macroeconometric Model for the Cyprus Economy," Working Papers 2013-02, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    11. Vincenzo Di Maro, 2002. "Il NAIRU: la stima e l’effetto della riallocazione settoriale permanente dell’occupazione," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(6), pages 69-110, November-.
    12. Bruno Chiarini & Massimo Giannini, 2000. "A Model Of Union Behaviour And Benefits Under Uncertainty - Did Thatcher'S Benefits Policy Increase Employment And Reduce Union Power?," Working Papers 5_2000, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    13. Mirowski, Philip, 1995. "Three ways to think about testing in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 25-46, May.
    14. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 93-114, February.
    15. Andre Jungmittag & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2004. "Politikberatung und empirische Wirtschaftsforschung: Entwicklungen, Probleme, Optionen für mehr Rationalität in der Wirtschaftspolitik," EIIW Discussion paper disbei121, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    16. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    17. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2000. "Unemployment, Wage Pressure and Sectoral Shifts: Permanent and Temporary Consequences of Intersectoral Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 777-799, December.

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