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Stock prices, inflation and output: evidence from China

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  • Xing-Qiu Zhao

Abstract

This study documents some unique statistical properties in the relationships among inflation, output and stock prices in the Chinese economy. The relationship between stock returns and unexpected output growth is significantly positive, but that between stock returns and expected output growth is significantly negative. The relationship between stock prices and inflation is significantly negative, and the inverse relationship disappears after controlling for the effects of output growth. This result is consistent with Fama's conjecture.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing-Qiu Zhao, 1999. "Stock prices, inflation and output: evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(8), pages 509-511.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:8:p:509-511
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599352835
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chatrath, Arjun & Ramchander, Sanjay & Song, Frank, 1996. "Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 237-245.
    2. Tony Caporale & Chulho Jung, 1997. "Inflation and real stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 265-266.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Ato Forson & Jakkaphong Janrattanagul, 2014. "Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.
    2. Numan Ülkü & Kexing Wu, 2023. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Ijaz Ur Rehman, 2016. "Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1280-1295, December.
    5. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2015. "Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 98-111.
    6. Osuagwu, Eze, 2009. "The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Stock Market Performance In Nigeria," MPRA Paper 112934, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2009.
    7. Habibullah, M.S. & Baharom, A.H. & Fong, Kin Hing, 2009. "Predictive Content of Output and Inflation For Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 14114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    9. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    10. Asmy, Mohamed & Rohilina, Wisam & Hassama, Aris & Fouad, Md., 2009. "Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Approach of Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 20970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.
    12. A. Vijayakumar, 2010. "Effect of Financial Performance on Share Prices in the Indian Corporate Sector: An Empirical Study," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 35(3), pages 369-381, August.
    13. Michael Segun Ogunmuyiwa & Babatunde A. Okuneye, 2014. "A Monthly Data Analysis of the Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rate on NSE Index," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 56-62.
    14. Khan, Khalid & SU, Chi-Wei & Khurshid, Adnan & Rehman, Ashfaq U., 2018. "Can the Fisher Effect Theory Work in Pakistan?," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 25(1), October.
    15. Jin Guo, 2015. "Causal relationship between stock returns and real economic growth in the pre- and post-crisis period: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 12-31, January.

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