What triggers inflation in emerging market economics?
Emerging market economies (EMEs) have experienced a noticeable decline in inflation since the mid-1990s. Whether this stable price environment in EMEs is likely to endure and what kind of policies need to be followed to ensure price stability, however, still continue to be questions of considerable policy relevance. The authors investigate the factors associated with the start of 24 inflation episodes in 15 EMEs between 1980 and 2001. They use pooled probit analysis to estimate the contribution of the key factors to inflation starts. Their empirical results suggest that increases in the output gap, agricultural shocks, and expansionary fiscal policy raise the probability of inflation starts in EMEs. Their findings also indicate that a more democratic environment and an increase in capital flows relative to GDP reduce the probability of inflation starts.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/Email:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1995.
"Inflation crises and long-run growth,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1517, The World Bank.
- Prakash Loungani & Phillip Swagel, 2001. "Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/198, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Bruno, 1993. "Stabilization and the macroeconomics of transition - How different is Eastern Europe?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 1(1), pages 5-19, 01.
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002.
"Modern Hyper- and High Inflations,"
NBER Working Papers
8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
- Laurence Ball, 1993.
"What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?,"
NBER Working Papers
4306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 381-442.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- Eva Gutierrez, 2003. "Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence; Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 03/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
- Marco Terrones & Luis CatÃ£o, 2001. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation; A New Look At the Emerging Market Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/74, International Monetary Fund.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1992. "Lessons from Experiences with High Inflation," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(1), pages 13-31, January.
- Guy Debelle, 2001. "The Case for Inflation Targeting in East Asian Countries," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.), Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Boschen, John F & Weise, Charles L, 2003. " What Starts Inflation: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 323-49, June.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006.
"The conquest of South American inflation,"
2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Alberto Alesina, 1988. "Macroeconomics and Politics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 13-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38 Bank for International Settlements.
- Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
- Broz, J. Lawrence, 2002. "Political System Transparency and Monetary Commitment Regimes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 861-887, September.
- Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
- corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA.
- Lindbeck, Assar, 1976. "Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 1-19, May.
- Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.