IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Determination of inflation in an open economy Phillips curve framework: the case of developed and developing Asian countries

  • Pami Dua
  • Upasna Gaur
Registered author(s):

This paper investigates the determination of inflation in the framework of an open economy forward-looking as well as conventional backward-looking Phillips curve for eight Asian countries - Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, China Mainland and India. Using quarterly data from the 1990s to 2005 and applying the instrumental variables estimation technique, we find that the output gap is significant in explaining the inflation rate in almost all the countries. Furthermore, at least one measure of international competitiveness has a statistically significant influence on inflation in all the countries. The differences in the developed and developing world are highlighted by the significance of agriculture related supply shocks in determining inflation in the case of developing countries. For all countries, the forward-looking Phillips curve provides a better fit compared to the backward-looking variant.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17520840903498107
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies.

Volume (Year): 3 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 33-51

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:3:y:2010:i:1:p:33-51
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REME20

Order Information: Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REME20

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2006. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 12395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2001. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 44, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
  4. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Ashima Goyal & Ayan Kumar Pujari, 2005. "Analyzing Core Inflation in India: A Structural VAR Approach," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 76- 90, May.
  7. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2003. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?," Scholarly Articles 3415322, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
  11. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1997. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, March.
  12. Ilker Domaç & Eray M. Yücel, 2005. "What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 141-164, April.
  13. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  15. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  16. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  17. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA.
  18. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  19. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  20. Hans Genberg & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2003. "An Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from Hong Kong," IHEID Working Papers 03-2003, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  21. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Ramachandran, M., 2007. "Core inflation for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 365-383, April.
  23. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
  24. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38 Bank for International Settlements.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:3:y:2010:i:1:p:33-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.