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Determination of inflation in an open economy Phillips curve framework: the case of developed and developing Asian countries

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  • Pami Dua
  • Upasna Gaur

Abstract

This paper investigates the determination of inflation in the framework of an open economy forward-looking as well as conventional backward-looking Phillips curve for eight Asian countries - Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, China Mainland and India. Using quarterly data from the 1990s to 2005 and applying the instrumental variables estimation technique, we find that the output gap is significant in explaining the inflation rate in almost all the countries. Furthermore, at least one measure of international competitiveness has a statistically significant influence on inflation in all the countries. The differences in the developed and developing world are highlighted by the significance of agriculture related supply shocks in determining inflation in the case of developing countries. For all countries, the forward-looking Phillips curve provides a better fit compared to the backward-looking variant.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Upasna Gaur, 2010. "Determination of inflation in an open economy Phillips curve framework: the case of developed and developing Asian countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 33-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:3:y:2010:i:1:p:33-51 DOI: 10.1080/17520840903498107
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lekha Chakraborty & Kushagra Om Varma, 2015. "Efficacy of New Monetary Framework and Determining Inflation in India: An Empirical Analysis of Financially Deregulated Regime," Working Papers id:7336, eSocialSciences.
    2. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2017. "Households' Inflation Expectations in India: Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Financial Uncertainty Spill-over," Working Papers id:11890, eSocialSciences.
    3. Kapur, Muneesh & Behera, Harendra, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in India: A Quarterly Model," MPRA Paper 70631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:spr:jqecon:v:15:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-016-0059-y is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kapur, Muneesh, 2013. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for India and inflation forecasting," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 17-27.
    6. Lekha Chakraborty & Kushagra Om Varma, 2015. "Efficacy of New Monetary Framework and Determining Inflation in India: An Empirical Analysis of Financially Deregulated Regime," Working Papers id:7336, eSocialSciences.
    7. Biswajit Maitra, 2016. "Inflation Dynamics in India: Relative Role of Structural and Monetary Factors," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(2), pages 237-255, December.
    8. Ismael, Mohanad & Sadeq, Tareq, 2016. "Does Phillips Exist in Palestine? An Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 70245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Islam, Faridul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Phillips curve in a small open economy: A time series exploration of North Cyprus," MPRA Paper 28397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mohammed Saiful Islam & Riduanul Mustafa, 2017. "Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, pages 191-198.

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