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Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

  • Takatoshi Ito

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Kiyotaka Sato

    (Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University)

The pass-through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian countries are examined using a VAR analysis including several price indices and domestic macroeconomic variables as well as the exchange rate. Results from the VAR analysis show that (1) the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices was quite high in the crisis-hit countries; (2) the pass-through to CPI was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia: and (3) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks are positive, large and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia's accommodative monetary policy as well as the high degree of the CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was important factors that resulted in the spiraling effects of domestic price inflation and sharp nominal exchange rate depreciation in the post-crisis period.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-406.

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Length: 46pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2006cf406
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  1. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S., 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S., 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs and the Insensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
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  5. Todd E. Clark, 1999. "The Responses Of Prices At Different Stages Of Production To Monetary Policy Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 420-433, August.
  6. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
  7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," CEIS Research Paper 23, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  8. Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori & Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2006. "Revisiting the Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Further Evidence from Japan's Import Prices," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(1), pages 61-75, March.
  9. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
  10. Ross McLeod, 2002. "Toward Improved Monetary Policy in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2002-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  11. José M. Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & José M. González-Mínguez, 2005. "Exchange rate pass through to import prices in the euro area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0538, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Kenichi Ohno, 1989. "Export Pricing Behavior of Manufacturing: A U.S.: Japan Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 550-579, September.
  14. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3 - 18.
  15. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
  16. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area; The Role of Asymmetric Pricing Behavior," IMF Working Papers 04/14, International Monetary Fund.
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