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Exchange rate pass-through into Romanian price indices. A VAR approach


  • Cozmanca,Bogdan-Octavian

    () (Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest and National Bank of Romania)

  • Manea, Florentina

    () (RBS Romania)


This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices, producer prices and several different measures of consumer price indices for the Romanian economy. In order to determine the size and describe the dynamics in ERPT the paper employs an array of econometric methods belonging to the VAR family. The methods employed are RVARs (on different price indices and/or on a rolling window) and Sign-restriction VARs (also using different consumer inflation measures). The results point to an almost complete pass-through into import prices and incomplete pass-through into producer and consumer prices. In all cases except import prices the ERPT displays a decline in magnitude over the analysed time interval.

Suggested Citation

  • Cozmanca,Bogdan-Octavian & Manea, Florentina, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through into Romanian price indices. A VAR approach," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 092102, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpmems:092102

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Isaac Mwangi, 2013. "Commodity price shocks and inflation in a net oil-importing economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148, June.
    2. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 121-141, September.
    3. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Urosevic, 2011. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Working papers 18, National Bank of Serbia.

    More about this item


    exchange rate; pass-through; import prices; producer prices; consumer prices; vector autoregression; sign-restriction.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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