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Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Romanian Price Indices. Avar Approach

Author

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  • Cozmanca, Bogdan-Octavian

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, and National Bank of Romania)

  • Manea, Florentina

    (RBS Romania)

Abstract

This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices, producer prices and several different measures of consumer price indices for the Romanian economy. In order to determine the size and describe the dynamics in ERPT, the paper employs an array of econometric methods belonging to the VAR family. The methods employed are RVARs (on different price indices and/or on a rolling window) and Sign-restriction VARs (also using different consumer inflation measures). The results point to an almost complete pass-through into import prices and incomplete pass-through into producer and consumer prices. In all cases except import prices the ERPT displays a decline in magnitude over the analysed time interval.

Suggested Citation

  • Cozmanca, Bogdan-Octavian & Manea, Florentina, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Romanian Price Indices. Avar Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 26-52, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:3:p:26-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Farhan AHMED & Muhammad OWAIS & Sandhya KUMARI & Rohit RAJJANI, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through to macroeconomic indicators using Vector Auto Regression: Empirical evidence from Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 61-76, Autumn.
    3. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Isaac Mwangi, 2013. "Commodity price shocks and inflation in a net oil-importing economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148, June.
    4. Ganapati Mendali & Sanjukta Das, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(3), pages 135-156, August.
    5. Mukhlis MUKHLIS & Raja MASBAR & Sofyan SYAHNUR & M. Shabri Abd. MAJID, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities Between World Oil Price And Indonesia’S Cocoa Market: Evidence From The 2008 Global Financial Crisis And The 2011 European Debt Crisis," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 217-233, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; pass-through; import prices; producer prices; consumer prices; vector autoregression; sign-restriction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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