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Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices

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  • Hernán Rincón-Castro
  • Norberto Rodríguez-Niño

Abstract

This paper examines the nature of the pass-through of exchange rate shocks on prices along the distribution chain, and estimates its short and long-term path. It uses monthly data from a small open economy and a smooth transition auto-regressive vector model estimated by Bayesian methods. The main finding is that exchange rate pass-through is nonlinear and state and shock dependent. There are two main policy implications of these findings. First, models used by central banks for policymaking should take into account the nonlinear and endogenous nature of the pass-through. Second, a specific rule on pass-through for monetary policy decisions should be avoided.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:690
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate pass-through to prices; pricing along the distribution chain; statedependent; shock-dependent; LST-VAR; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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