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Nonlinear Impacts of International Business Cycles on the UK — a Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR

Author

Listed:
  • Deborah Gefang
  • Rodney Strachan

Abstract

Employing a Bayesian approach, we investigate the impact of international business cycles on the UK economy in the context of a smooth transition VAR. We find that British business cycle is asymmetrically influenced by the US, France and Germany. Overall, positive and negative shocks generating in the US or France affect the UK in the same directions of the shock. Yet, a shock emanating from Germany always exerts negative accumulative effects on the UK. More strikingly, a positive shock arising from Germany negatively affects UK output growth more than a negative shock from Germany of the same size. These results suggest that the appropriate UK economic policy depends upon the origin, size and direction of the external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Deborah Gefang & Rodney Strachan, 2008. "Nonlinear Impacts of International Business Cycles on the UK — a Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/4, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:08/4
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    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp08-4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2007. "A sneeze in the U.S., a cough in Japan, but pneumonia in Taiwan? An application of the Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-14, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, November.
    2. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Asymmetric reactions of the US natural gas market and economic activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-99.
    5. MIYAO Ryuzo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Discussion papers 17065, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Deborah Gefang, 2012. "Money‐output Causality Revisited – A Bayesian Logistic Smooth Transition VECM Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 131-151, February.
    7. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International business cycle; Bayesian; smooth transition vector autoregression model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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