IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lec/leecon/08-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinear Impacts of International Business Cycles on the UK — a Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR

Author

Listed:
  • Deborah Gefang

    ()

  • Rodney Strachan

Abstract

Employing a Bayesian approach, we investigate the impact of international business cycles on the UK economy in the context of a smooth transition VAR. We find that British business cycle is asymmetrically influenced by the US, France and Germany. Overall, positive and negative shocks generating in the US or France affect the UK in the same directions of the shock. Yet, a shock emanating from Germany always exerts negative accumulative effects on the UK. More strikingly, a positive shock arising from Germany negatively affects UK output growth more than a negative shock from Germany of the same size. These results suggest that the appropriate UK economic policy depends upon the origin, size and direction of the external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Deborah Gefang & Rodney Strachan, 2008. "Nonlinear Impacts of International Business Cycles on the UK — a Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/4, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:08/4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp08-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deborah Gefang, 2012. "Money‐output Causality Revisited – A Bayesian Logistic Smooth Transition VECM Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 131-151, February.
    2. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity," Discussion papers 17102, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. MIYAO Ryuzo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Discussion papers 17065, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International business cycle; Bayesian; smooth transition vector autoregression model;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:08/4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mrs. Alexandra Mazzuoccolo). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deleiuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.