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Exchange Rate Pass-Through into German Import Prices – A Disaggregated Perspective


  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Florian Verheyen
  • Ansgar Belke


This study analyzes the exchange rate pass-through into German import prices based on disaggregated data taken on a monthly basis between 1995 and 2012. Our main contribution is twofold: firstly, we employ various time-series techniques to analyze data for different product categories, and also cointegration techniques to carefully distinguish between shortrun and long-run pass-through coefficients. Secondly, in a panel data approach we estimate time-varying pass-through coefficients and explain their development with regard to various macroeconomic factors. Our results show that long-run pass-through is only partly observable and incomplete, while short-run pass-through shows a more unique character, although heterogeneity across product groups does exist. We are also able to identify several macroeconomic factors which determine changes in the degree of pass-through, which is especially relevant for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Joscha Beckmann & Florian Verheyen & Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into German Import Prices – A Disaggregated Perspective," ROME Working Papers 201306, ROME Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201306

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    2. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
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    6. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
    7. Berner, Eike, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through: New evidence from German micro data," Economics Working Papers 2011-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    8. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
    9. Matthieu Bussière & Simona Delle Chiaie & Tuomas A Peltonen, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy: The Role of Emerging Market Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(1), pages 146-178, April.
    10. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    11. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    12. Bussière, M. & Delle Chiaie, S. & Peltonen, T. A., 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy," Working papers 424, Banque de France.
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    14. Al-Abri, Almukhtar S. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 142-161, January.
    15. Brun-Aguerre, Raphael & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 818-844.
    16. Hargreaves, Colin P. (ed.), 1994. "Non-Stationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773924, June.
    17. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2012. "Long Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Panel Cointegration Approach," FIW Working Paper series 078, FIW.
    18. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
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    21. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2012. "Non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from smooth transition models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2530-2545.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item


    exchange rate pass-through; Germany; cointegration; time-varying coefficient model;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade


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