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Does Inflation Targeting decrease Exchange Rate Pass-through in Emerging Countries ?

Author

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  • Dramane Coulibaly

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hubert Kempf

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics, Banque de France - Direction de la Recherche)

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically examine the effect of inflation targeting on the exchange rate pass-through to prices in emerging countries. We use a panel VAR that allows us to use the larger data set on twenty-seven emerging countries (fifteen inflation targeters and twelve inflation nontargeters). Our evidence suggests that inflation targeting in emerging countries has helped to reduce the pass-through to various price indexes (import prices, producer prices and consumer prices) from a higher level to a new level that is significantly different from zero. The variance decomposition shows that the contribution of exchange rate shocks to prices fluctuations is more important in emerging targeters compared to nontargeters, and the contribution of exchange rate shocks to price fluctuations in emerging targeters declines after adopting inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Dramane Coulibaly & Hubert Kempf, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting decrease Exchange Rate Pass-through in Emerging Countries ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00497446, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00497446
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00497446
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2002. "Why Are Rates of Inflation So Low After large Devaluations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 742-784, August.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yanamandra, Venkataramana, 2015. "Exchange rate changes and inflation in India: What is the extent of exchange rate pass-through to imports?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 57-68.
    2. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:247-259 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. María Lorena Marí Del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2013. "Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the US dollar?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(31), pages 4395-4411, November.
    4. repec:eee:riibaf:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:186-217 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. John B. Taylor, 2016. "Rethinking the International Monetary System," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 239-250, Spring/Su.
    6. Mariarosaria Comunale & Heli Simola, 2016. "The Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in CIS Economies: the Role of Exchange Rates, Commodities and Other Common Factors," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 35, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Tunc, Cengiz & Kılınç, Mustafa, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Small Open Economy: A Structural VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 72770, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jul 2016.
    8. Francesca G Caselli & Agustin Roitman, 2016. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 16/1, International Monetary Fund.
    9. repec:ukb:journl:y:2015:i:233:p:39-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kadria, Mohamed & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2016. "Inflation targeting and public deficit in emerging countries: A time varying treatment effect approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 108-114.
    11. GHARDACH, jaouad, 2014. "The Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Import Prices: A Panel Evidence From Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 64938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stephanie Medina Cas & Alejandro Carrion-Menendez & Florencia Frantischek, 2011. "Improving the Monetary Policy Frameworks in Central America," IMF Working Papers 11/245, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Zhi Yu, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through, firm heterogeneity and product quality: a theoretical analysis," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 141, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Brun-Aguerre, Raphael & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 818-844.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; exchange rate pass-through; panel VAR.; Ciblage d'inflation; pass-through du taux de change;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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