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A Phillips Curve for China

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  • Scheibe, Jörg
  • Vines, David

Abstract

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate a partially forward-looking Phillips curve as well as traditional backward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly data from 1988 to 2002, we estimate a vertical long-run Phillips curve for China and show that the output gap, the exchange rate, and inflation expectations play important roles in explaining inflation. We adjust for structural change in the economy where possible and estimate regressions for rolling sample windows in order to test for and uncover gradual structural change. We evaluate a number of alternative output gap estimates and find that output gaps which are derived from production function estimations for the Chinese economy are of more use in estimating a Phillips curve than output gaps derived from simple statistical trends. Partially forward-looking Phillips curves provide a better fit than backward-looking ones. The identification of a non-increasing exchange rate effect on inflation during a period of large import growth hints at increased pricing to market behaviour by importers. This result is relevant to policies regarding possible exchange rate liberalization in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4957
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Funke, 2005. "Inflation in Mainland China - Modelling a Roller Coaster Ride," Working Papers 152005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Jisheng Yang, 2010. "Expectation, excess liquidity and inflation dynamics in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 412-429, September.
    3. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2010. "Modelling inflation in China--A regional perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-255, June.
    4. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    5. Pami Dua & Upasna Gaur, 2010. "Determination of inflation in an open economy Phillips curve framework: the case of developed and developing Asian countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 33-51.
    6. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    7. Richard CK Burdekin & Ilan Noy, 2005. "What Has Driven Chinese Monetary Policy Since 1990? Investigating the People's Bank's Policy Rule," Economics Study Area Working Papers 85, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    8. Liu, Li-gang & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "A New Keynesian model for analysing monetary policy in Mainland China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 540-551, December.
    9. Bagnai, Alberto, 2009. "The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 508-526, September.
    10. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2008. "Forecasting inflation in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "From the General to the Specific," Discussion Papers 11-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    12. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2012. "Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-70.
    13. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; monetary policy; output gap; Phillips curve; structural change;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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