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Exchange rate reform and its inflationary consequences: an empirical analysis for China

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  • Maozu Lu
  • Zhichao Zhang

Abstract

In examining China's exchange rate policy in the reforming years, the study finds empirical evidence of its long-run inflationary consequences, but the effects appear not to be sizable. In the short run, while changes in the devaluation rate are positively correlated with the increase in the growth rate of inflation, the inflation inertia is also modest. The moderate inflationary cost of devaluations provides some explanation of the smooth transition of exchange rate policy regime in China and the authorities' ability to put more weight on external competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Maozu Lu & Zhichao Zhang, 2003. "Exchange rate reform and its inflationary consequences: an empirical analysis for China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 189-199.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:2:p:189-199
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684022000017575
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    2. Adeniji, Sesan, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation Upturn in Nigeria: Testing for Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 52062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chi-Wei Su, 2012. "The relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 33-56.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between real exchange rates, real interest rates and foreign exchange reserves: empirical evidence from China," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 639-651.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "The relationship between the real exchange rate and balance of payments: empirical evidence for China from cointegration and causality testing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 287-291.
    6. Tianfeng Li & June Wei, 2015. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Phylaktis, Kate & Girardin, Eric, 2001. "Foreign exchange markets in transition economies: China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 215-235, February.
    8. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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