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The Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on the Non-oil Export: The Case of Azerbaijan

The paper investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports in Azerbaijan by applying Vector Error Correction Model. The estimation results suggest that real exchange rate of manat has negative impact on non-oil export performance while non-oil GDP affects positively in the long- and short-run. Error correction term indicates that short-run fluctuation can be adjusted into long-run equilibrium relationship. Based on findings of the study can be concluded that appreciating real exchange rate is one of major factors that impede non-oil export growth. Since promotion of non-oil export is one of the urgent issues of the strategic economic policy of Azerbaijan Republic then findings of the study may be useful for policymakers.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29556/1/MPRA_paper_29556.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29556.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29556
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  12. Wang, Kai-Li & Barrett, Christopher B., 2002. "A New Look At The Trade Volume Effects Of Real Exchange Rate Risk," Working Papers 14751, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  13. Yusuf, Adesina Sulaiman & Edom, Cyprian .O, 2007. "Determinants of timber exports in Nigeria: an error correction modeling approach," MPRA Paper 2608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Tihomir Stucka, 2004. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance in Croatia," IMF Working Papers 04/65, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Orhan Kara, 2003. "Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 293-308.
  17. Kolawole Olayiwola & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1479-1496, November.
  18. Dorosh, Paul & Vald├ęs, Alberto, 1990. "Effects of exchange rate and trade policies on agriculture in Pakistan:," Research reports 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  19. Junz, Helen B & Rhomberg, Rudolf R, 1973. "Price Competitiveness in Export Trade Among Industrial Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 412-18, May.
  20. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?," Working papers 2005-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  21. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
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