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The Role of the Fiscal Policy in the Development of the Non-Resource

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  • Hasanov, Fakhri
  • Mammadov, Fuad

Abstract

The research investigates the impact of the fiscal policy on the non-oil sector of Azerbaijani economy in the framework of cointegration and error correction modeling over the quarterly period 2000-2009. For increasing robustness of the obtained results, we employed two different cointegration methods: the residual-based Engle-Granger approach and the system-based Johansen approach. The empirical results from these approaches are quite close to each other and indicate that the government expenditures have significant positive influence on the non-oil GDP both in the long- and short-run. Therefore, the fiscal policy can play a supportive role in developing the non-oil sector. We further showed that ability of the fiscal policy to support the non-oil sector development, among others, is heavily determined by the degree of dependence on the oil revenues. Therefore, one of the urgent remedies for the Azerbaijani policy makers is to loosen gradually the dependence of the government budget on the oil revenues and oil prices. Instead, non-oil taxes can be considered as an alternative source of the government revenues. We also recommend that the policy makers should also pay particular attention to the investment issues as it has a positive effect on the non-oil sector development. Finally, we reemphasize the importance of future detailed research on improving the efficiency of the fiscal policy in the non-oil sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasanov, Fakhri & Mammadov, Fuad, 2010. "The Role of the Fiscal Policy in the Development of the Non-Resource," MPRA Paper 65571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Khatai Aliyev & Altay Ismayilov & Ilkin Gasimov, 2019. "Modelling Elasticity of Non-Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U-Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 799-810.
    2. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sabuhi Yusifov & Khatai Aliyev & Samra Talishinskaya, 2019. "The role of social and physical infrastructure spending in tradable and non-tradable growth," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    3. Richardson Kojo Edeme & Clifford Nworah Obiayo, 2017. "Analysis of the Responsiveness of Non-Oil Exports to Fiscal and Monetary Policy Actions," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(3), pages 92-101, September.
    4. Khatai Aliyev & Orkhan Nadirov, 2016. "How Fiscal Policy Affects Non-Oil Economic Performance in Azerbaijan?," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 2(3), pages 11-29, September.
    5. Khatai Aliyev & Ilkin Gasimov, 2018. "Fiscal policy implementation in Azerbaijan before, during and after the oil boom," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(1), March.
    6. Fakhri Hasanov & Fuad Mammadov & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Khatai Aliyev & Ceyhun Mikayilov, 2016. "Does the Budget Expenditure Composition Matter for Long-Run Economic Growth in a Resource Rich Country? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 2(2), pages 147-168, June.
    8. Khatai Aliyev & Bruce Dehning & Orkhan Nadirov, 2016. "Modelling the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Gdp in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 1869-1878.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Azerbaijan economy; fiscal policy; non-oil GDP; the Engle-Granger approach; the Johansen approach; cointegration; error-correction modeling.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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