IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mup/actaun/actaun_2016064061869.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non‑Oil Gdp in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Author

Listed:
  • Khatai Aliyev

    () (Institute for Social Sciences and Humanities, Qafqaz University, Khirdalan, Azerbaijan; Institute of Control Systems, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, Baku, Azerbaijan)

  • Bruce Dehning

    () (Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University, Orange, California, United States)

  • Orkhan Nadirov

    () (Faculty of Management and Economics, Tomas Bata University in Zlin, Zlin, Czech Republic)

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of public expenditures and tax revenues on non‑oil economic growth in Azerbaijan for the period of 2000Q1‑2015Q2 by employing OLS, ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR and Granger Causality techniques. Different cointegration methods result in consistent results. In this study, there is strong evidence of significant long‑run positive contributions from public expenditures to non‑oil sector output. Results also show that tax revenues significantly slow down non‑oil economic growth in the long run. Granger Causality analysis finds the existence of a bidirectional short‑run association between non‑oil GDP and public expenditures, while tax revenues Granger Cause both variables. The research findings should be useful for Azerbaijan fiscal policy makers to consider now and in the future. Current plans in Azerbaijan for both public expenditure cuts and tax revenue increases are likely to cause contraction in the Azerbaijan’s non‑oil sector GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Khatai Aliyev & Bruce Dehning & Orkhan Nadirov, 2016. "Modelling the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non‑Oil Gdp in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 1869-1878.
  • Handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2016064061869
    DOI: 10.11118/actaun201664061869
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://acta.mendelu.cz/media/pdf/actaun_2016064061869.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://acta.mendelu.cz/64/6/1869/
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    4. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    7. Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Aslaksen, Silje, 2008. "Constitutions and the resource curse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 227-246, October.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    9. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
    10. Hasanov, Fakhri & Mammadov, Fuad, 2010. "The Role of the Fiscal Policy in the Development of the Non-Resource," MPRA Paper 65571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Dietz, Simon & Neumayer, Eric & De Soysa, Indra, 2007. "Corruption, the resource curse and genuine saving," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 33-53, February.
    12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    14. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    15. Michael Sturm & François Gurtner & Juan Gonzalez Alegre, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    16. Joharji Ghazi A. & Starr Martha A, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Growth in Saudi Arabia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 24-45, February.
    17. Frimpong, Joseph Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu, 2006. "Bivariate causality analysis between FDI inflows and economic growth in Ghana," MPRA Paper 351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2006.
    18. Hasanov Fakhri, 2011. "Dutch Disease and Azerbaijan Economy," EERC Working Paper Series 11/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    19. repec:hrv:faseco:34729976 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-415.
    21. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    22. Sturm, Michael & Gurtner, François & González Alegre, Juan, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries: a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    23. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Public sector efficiency: An international comparison," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
    24. Arusha Cooray, 2009. "Government Expenditure, Governance and Economic Growth," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(3), pages 401-418, September.
    25. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    27. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2020. "Analysis of Inflation Trends in Urban and Rural Parts of Azerbaijan: Main Drivers and Links to Oil Revenue," EconStor Preprints 226217, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Khatai Aliyev & Altay Ismayilov & Ilkin Gasimov, 2019. "Modelling Elasticity of Non‑Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U‑Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 799-810.
    3. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Oil Factor in Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(8), pages 1-1, April.
    4. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sabuhi Yusifov & Khatai Aliyev & Samra Talishinskaya, 2019. "The role of social and physical infrastructure spending in tradable and non-tradable growth," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    5. Fakhri Hasanov & Fuad Mammadov & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(2), pages 1-1, April.
    6. Jaehyung An & Alexey Mikhaylov & Sang-Uk Jung, 2020. "The Strategy of South Korea in the Global Oil Market," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(10), pages 1-1, May.
    7. Jeyhun A. Abbasov & Khatai Aliyev, 2018. "Testing Wagner’s Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Selected Post‑Soviet Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(5), pages 1227-1237.
    8. Akif Musayev & Khatai Aliyev, 2017. "Modelling Oil‑Sector Dependency of Tax Revenues in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 1023-1029.
    9. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Gadim-Ogli Hajiyev, 2020. "The Impact of Oil Factor on the Car Import in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 450-462.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2016064061869. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bohumir Valter). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.