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What Has Driven Chinese Monetary Policy Since 1990? Investigating the People's Bank's Policy Rule

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Listed:
  • Richard CK Burdekin

    () (Jonathan B. Lovelace Professor of Economics, Claremont McKenna)

  • Ilan Noy

    () (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii)

Abstract

Post-1990 Chinese monetary policy is modeled with a McCallum-type rule that takes into account the People's Bank of China's emphasis on targeting the rate of money supply growth. People's Bank policy appears responsive to the gap between target and actual nominal GDP as well as to external pressures. Additional cointegration analysis yields estimates of the gap between estimated money demand and actual money supply that appear to track the inflationary trends evident over our sample period. Chinese inflation and monetary policy outcomes seem reasonably captured using a standard monetary approach, therefore, without the need to appeal to China-specific "structural" factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard CK Burdekin & Ilan Noy, 2005. "What Has Driven Chinese Monetary Policy Since 1990? Investigating the People's Bank's Policy Rule," Economics Study Area Working Papers 85, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp85
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Whited, Hsin-hui I.H., 2005. "Exporting hyperinflation: The long arm of Chiang Kai-shek," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-89.
    2. Duo Qin, 2003. "Determinants of household savings in China and their role in quasi-money supply," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 513-537, September.
    3. Cargill, Thomas F. & Parker, Elliott, 2004. "Price deflation, money demand, and monetary policy discontinuity: a comparative view of Japan, China, and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 125-147, March.
    4. Richard C.K. Burdekin, "undated". "Ending Inflation in the People's Republic of China: From Chairman Mao to the 21st Century," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2000-08, Claremont Colleges.
    5. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Siklos, Pierre L, 1993. "Income Velocity and Institutional Change: Some New Time Series Evidence, 1870-1986," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 377-392, August.
    7. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Claustre Bajona & Tianshu Chu, 2004. "China's WTO Accession and Its Effect on State-Owned Enterprises," Economics Study Area Working Papers 70, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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