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Money Velocity with Costly Credit

  • Gillman, M.
  • Siklos, P.L.
  • Silver, J.L.

The paper functionally describes the income velocity of money by including the cost of a key substitute to money: exchange credit. Financial innovation causes the cost of credit to fall, the quantity of money demanded to fall, and the velocity to rise, all without shifting the money demand function. The paper derives a general equilibrium money demand function, specifies a parametric equation of the income velocity of money from the model, and finds cointegration between the relevant variables in an expanded velocity equation which also produces consistent dynamics. It explains U.S. post-war long-run velocity through only the substitution effects from the relative cost of exchange by money versus credit. It explains short run dynamics with the same substitution effect. In addition, evidence suggests that an income effect helps explain the dynamics as predicted by an application of the permanent income hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 97-4.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wlu:wpaper:97-4
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Web page: http://www.wlu.ca/sbe/economics/

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  1. Siklos, Pierre L, 1993. "Income Velocity and Institutional Change: Some New Time Series Evidence, 1870-1986," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 377-92, August.
  2. Ireland, Peter N, 1995. "Endogenous Financial Innovation and the Demand for Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 107-23, February.
  3. Ireland, Peter N., 1994. "Economic growth, financial evolution, and the long-run behavior of velocity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 815-848.
  4. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S126-50, October.
  5. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-68, May.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  8. Robert J. Hodrick & Narayana Kocherlakota & Deborah Lucas, 1989. "The Variability of Velocity in Cash-In-Advance Models," NBER Working Papers 2891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 640-657, September.
  10. Danny Quah, 1988. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Working papers 498, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Robert E Lucas, 1999. "Making a Miracle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2101, David K. Levine.
  12. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1991. "The demand for money in developing countries : assessing the role of financial innovation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 721, The World Bank.
  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 1989. "Could A Monetary Base Rule Have Prevented the Great Depression?," NBER Working Papers 3162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1985. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," NBER Working Papers 1618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-2.
  16. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
  17. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  18. Ireland, Peter N, 1996. "The Role of Countercyclical Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 704-23, August.
  19. Melnick, Rafi, 1995. "Financial Services, Cointegration, and the Demand for Money in Israel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 140-53, February.
  20. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-74, November.
  21. Allan H. Meltzer, 1963. "The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 219.
  22. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
  23. Butkiewicz, James L. & McConnell, Margaret Mary, 1995. "The stability of the demand for money and M1 velocity: Evidence from the sectoral data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 233-243.
  24. Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-45, April.
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