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Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks

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  • Szilárd Benk
  • Max Gillman

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  • Michal Kejak

Abstract

The explanation of velocity has been based in substitution and income effects, since Keynes’s (1923) interest rate explanation and Friedman’s (1956) application of the permanent income hypothesis to money demand. Modern real business cycle theory relies on a goods productivity shocks to mimic the data’s procyclic velocity feature, as in Friedman’s explanation, while finding money shocks unimportant and not integrating financial innovation explanations. This paper sets the model within endogenous growth and adds credit shocks. It models velocity more closely, with significant roles for money shocks and credit shocks, along with the goods productivity shocks. Endogenous growth is key to the construction of the money and credit shocks since they have similar effects on velocity, through substitution effects from changes in the nominal interest rate and in the cost of financial intermediation, but opposite effects upon growth, through permanent income effects that are absent with exogenous growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2006. " Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0604, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0604
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    File URL: https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/CDMA/papers/cp0604.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Lucas, Deborah, 1991. "The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 358-384, April.
    2. Gillman, Max, 1993. "The welfare cost of inflation in a cash-in-advance economy with costly credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 97-115, February.
    3. Wang, Weimin & Shi, Shouyong, 2006. "The variability of velocity of money in a search model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 537-571, April.
    4. Hamilton, James D., 1989. "The long-run behavior of the velocity of circulation : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 335-344, March.
    5. Gillman Max K & Yerokhin Oleg, 2005. "Ramsey-Friedman Optimality with Banking Time," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Gillman M. & Siklos & P.L.Silver & J.L., 1996. "Money Velocity with Costly Credit," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 515, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Clark, Jeffrey A, 1984. "Estimation of Economies of Scale in Banking Using a Generalized Functional Form," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 53-68, February.
    8. Stiroh, Kevin J & Strahan, Philip E, 2003. " Competitive Dynamics of Deregulation: Evidence from U.S. Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 801-828, October.
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    11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2010. "A banking explanation of the US velocity of money: 1919-2004," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 765-779, April.
    2. Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2009. "Financial shocks and the US business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 596-604, May.
    3. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Banking Approach," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Oct 2008.
    4. Hong, Hao, 2011. "Money, interest rates and the real activity," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "Consumption Velocity in a Cash Costly-Credit Model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/31, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N., 2008. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Tax Evasion and Growth: a Banking Approach," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0806, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    8. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    9. Szilard Benk & Tamas Csabafi & Jing Dang & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Tuning in RBC Growth Spectra," IMF Working Papers 16/215, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 839-858, November.
    11. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Persistent Liquidity," Working Papers 1010, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    12. Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2009. "Monetary effects on nominal oil prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 239-254, December.
    13. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Interest Rates Rules," Working Papers 1009, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    14. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. " Inflation, Financial Development and Human Capital-Based Endogenous Growth: an Explanation of Ten Empirical Findings," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0703, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    15. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    16. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1225, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    17. Gillman, Max & Otto, Glen, 2006. "Money Demand in General Equilibrium Endogenous Growth: Estimating the Role of a Variable Interest Elasticity," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/24, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Oct 2006.
    18. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Gillman, Max & Minford, Patrick, 2007. "An Endogenous Taylor Condition in an Endogenous Growth Monetary Policy Model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/29, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    19. Nao Sudo, 2011. "Accounting for the Decline in the Velocity of Money in the Japanese Economy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    20. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," Working Papers 1003, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Velocity; business cycle; credit shocks; endogenous growth.;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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