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Shrinking money and monetary business cycles

  • Harold L. Cole
  • Lee E. Ohanian

In the postwar period velocity has risen so sharply in the U.S. that the ratio of money to nominal output has fallen by a factor of three. We analyze the implications of shrinking money for the real effects of a monetary shock in two classes of equilibrium monetary business cycle models: limited participation (liquidity) models and predetermined (sticky) price models. We show that the liquidity model predicts that a rise in velocity leads to a substantial reduction in the real effects of a monetary shock. In sharp contrast, we show that the real effects of a monetary shock in the sticky price model are largely invariant to changes in velocity. We provide evidence that suggests that the real effects of monetary shocks have fallen over the postwar period.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 579.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:579
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  1. Adrian R. Pagan & John C. Robertson, 1995. "Resolving the liquidity effect," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 33-54.
  2. Lee E. Ohanian & Alan C. Stockman & Lutz Kilian, 1994. "The effects of real and monetary shocks in a business cycle model with some sticky prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1209-1240.
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  14. Barnett, William A & Offenbacher, Edward K & Spindt, Paul A, 1984. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1049-85, December.
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  24. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  25. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Evidence from the Flow of Funds," NBER Working Papers 4699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  27. Richard D. Porter & Ruth Judson, 1996. "The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 883-903.
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