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Inflation and Democracy in Former Extractive Colonies Analysis with a New Instrumental Variable

  • Mijiyawa, Abdoul
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    This paper analyzes the link between inflation and democracy in developing countries. In order to address the endogeneity issue of democracy, I use the date of political independence as an instrument for democratic institutions. The application of the criterion of Stock and Yogo (2002, 2005) for weak instrumental variable in my sample reveals that, the independence date is a good instrument for democratic institutions. Using five years pooled data covering the period 1960-2003, and a sample of 62 developing countries former extractive colonies (including 32 African countries); I find a robust positive causal relationship between inflation and democracy. It appears that democracy increases inflation because democracy stimulates money creation and compromises trade liberalization in my sample of developing countries. Case studies based on Chile, Ghana, and Sri Lanka better illustrate the result relating to the relationship between inflation and democracy in my sample.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/39914/1/AEL_2008_28_mijiyawa.pdf
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    Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics in its series Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 with number 28.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec08:28
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ael.ethz.ch/

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    1. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey P. & Neyapti, Bilin, 2002. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies--an international perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 237-264, March.
    2. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries?," NBER Working Papers 5540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Block, Steven A., 2002. "Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 205-228, February.
    4. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Prakash Loungani & Phillip Swagel, 2001. "Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/198, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
    7. Steven A. Block & Karen E. Ferree & Smita Singh, 2003. "Multiparty Competition, Founding Elections and Political Business Cycles in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(3), pages 444-468, September.
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