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Multiparty Competition, Founding Elections and Political Business Cycles in Africa

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  • Steven A. Block
  • Smita Singh
  • Karen E. Ferree

Abstract

Political business cycle theory largely abstracts from institutional context, in particular assuming that elections are competitive. Yet, as empirical work on political business cycles turns increasingly to developing countries and nascent democracies for evidence, this assumption becomes untenable. We propose and test two empirical hypotheses: first, we should only see cycles when elections involve multiparty competition; second, we should see larger cycles in founding elections. Using an indicator of multiparty competition and applying recent advances in dynamic panel (generalized method of moments) econometrics to data from Africa, we find strong support for both hypotheses. These findings have implications for democratic transitions and the compatibility of economic and political reform in nascent democracies.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven A. Block & Smita Singh & Karen E. Ferree, 2001. "Multiparty Competition, Founding Elections and Political Business Cycles in Africa," CID Working Papers 80A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:80a
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    elections; political business cycles; Africa; democratization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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