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Are fiscal deficits inflationary in African countries? A new evidence from an asymmetric cointegration analysis

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  • Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan
  • Aworinde, Olalekan B.

Abstract

This paper investigates relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in a sample of twelve African countries using quarterly series, covering the period from 1980:1 to 2018:4. It uses the Enders and Siklos (2001) technique that accommodates asymmetric adjustments between the series, which suits African countries with imperfect and underdeveloped financial market systems where adjustments may be sporadic and contingent. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in all the countries and fiscal deficit is inflationary, which indicates importance of fiscal consolidation. It is also found that adjustments between the series are asymmetric in these countries.

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  • Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan B., 2019. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary in African countries? A new evidence from an asymmetric cointegration analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:50:y:2019:i:c:s1062940819300154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.100999
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    Cited by:

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    2. Olusola Joel Oyeleke, 2021. "On the Non-Linear Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: The Nigeria Experience," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 105-117, May.
    3. Abel M. Agoba, 2021. "Minimising the inflationary impact of fiscal deficits in Africa: The role of monetary, financial and political institutions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 724-740, January.
    4. Ismail O. Fasanya & Ayinke Fajobi & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2021. "Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary In Nigeria? New Evidence From Bounds Testing To Cointegration With Structural Breaks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 123-148, January –.
    5. Léonce Ndikumana & Janvier D. Nkurunziza & Miguel Eduardo Sánchez Martín & Samuel Mulugeta & Zerihun Getachew Kelbore, 2023. "Monetary, fiscal, and structural drivers of inflation in Ethiopia: new empirical evidence from time series analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 924-962, May.
    6. Ndikumana,Léonce & Nkurunziza,Janvier D. & Sanchez Martin,Miguel Eduardo & Mulugeta,Samuel & Getachew Kelbore,Zerihun, 2021. "Monetary, Fiscal, and Structural Drivers of Inflation in Ethiopia : New Empirical Evidence from TimeSeries Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9881, The World Bank.
    7. Christopher Adam & Enrique Alberola-Ila & Albert Pierres Tejada, 2022. "Covid-19 and the monetary-fiscal policy nexus in Africa," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 121.
    8. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2020. "Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(2), pages 123-140, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal deficits; Inflation; Cointegration; Asymmetric adjustments; Africa countries; E31 H60; H62; C22;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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